Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 14/08, 12:30

Prediction: Caboolture FC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)

Team pages: Caboolture FC (W) · Mitchelton FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Caboolture FC (W)2.11

Mitchelton FC (W)1.04

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Caboolture FC (W) Draw Mitchelton FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Caboolture FC (W) 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Mitchelton FC (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Caboolture FC (W) 1–0 Mitchelton FC (W) (1 last)

Mitchelton FC (W)0-1Caboolture FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caboolture FC (W) 1585 · Mitchelton FC (W) 1523

	Caboolture FC (W)	Draw	Mitchelton FC (W)
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caboolture FC (W) (rating 1585 vs 1523).
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caboolture FC (W)	Mitchelton FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.5	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7.9	1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:55 +30’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caboolture FC (W) 1–0–0 Mitchelton FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women	Mitchelton FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Caboolture FC (W)

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	North Lakes United (W)	17	13	2	2	60	13	41
2	Caboolture FC (W)	17	12	4	1	45	13	40
3	The Gap NPL (W)	17	9	1	7	45	45	28
4	Mitchelton FC (W)	17	8	3	6	41	28	27
5	Peninsula Power (W)	17	7	2	8	32	40	23
6	Grange Thistle (W)	16	6	3	7	29	31	21
7	Palm Beach SC (W)	17	6	3	8	26	32	21
8	Virginia United SC (W)	17	5	2	10	13	37	17
9	Logan Lightning (W)	16	5	0	11	24	52	15
10	Moreton City Excelsior (W)	17	1	4	12	16	40	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caboolture FC (W)	Mitchelton FC (W)
Moreton City Excelsior (W)	2-0 W	5-2 W
Virginia United SC (W)	2-0 W	4-1 W
Grange Thistle (W)	1-1 D	3-1 W
Peninsula Power (W)	4-1 W	2-2 D
North Lakes United (W)	0-0 D	1-3 L
Logan Lightning (W)	5-1 W	3-1 W
Palm Beach SC (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
The Gap NPL (W)	2-1 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Caboolture FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
02/08	Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
25/07	Grange Thistle (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
17/07	Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	3-0	4-1	12	2	W
11/07	North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
04/07	Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	4-1	5-1	5	1	W
20/06	Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
13/06	The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	10	2	W
30/05	Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
23/05	Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	3-0	6	1	W

Mitchelton FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
31/07	Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-2	5-2	4	2	W
25/07	Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
18/07	Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
12/07	Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
04/07	Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
19/06	The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	2-3	3-4	4	3	L
15/06	Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-2	2-2	5	1	D
30/05	Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
24/05	North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caboolture FC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caboolture FC (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Caboolture FC (W) 62%, draw 21%, Mitchelton FC (W) 17%.

How many goals are expected in Caboolture FC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Caboolture FC (W) 2.11 · Mitchelton FC (W) 1.04), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Caboolture FC (W) vs Mitchelton FC (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.