Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 08/08, 09:00

Prediction: Mitchelton FC (W) vs North Lakes United (W)

Team pages: Mitchelton FC (W) · North Lakes United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Mitchelton FC (W)1.32

North Lakes United (W)2.57

1X2

18% 18% 64%

Mitchelton FC (W) Draw North Lakes United (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Mitchelton FC (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWWWWW

North Lakes United (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Mitchelton FC (W) 1–4 North Lakes United (W) (5 last)

North Lakes United (W)1-0Mitchelton FC (W)
North Lakes United (W)4-1Mitchelton FC (W)
North Lakes United (W)1-0Mitchelton FC (W)
Mitchelton FC (W)2-1North Lakes United (W)
Mitchelton FC (W)0-4North Lakes United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mitchelton FC (W) 1528 · North Lakes United (W) 1595

	Mitchelton FC (W)	Draw	North Lakes United (W)
Our model	17%	19%	64%
Market	18%	18%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Lakes United (W) (rating 1528 vs 1595).
H2H favours North Lakes United (W): 4-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mitchelton FC (W)	North Lakes United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	3.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.4	4.3 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	0.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +7’	5.00	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mitchelton FC (W) 1–0–4 North Lakes United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women	North Lakes United (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Mitchelton FC (W)
15/05/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series Women	North Lakes United (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	Mitchelton FC (W)
21/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	North Lakes United (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Mitchelton FC (W)
10/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Mitchelton FC (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	North Lakes United (W)
08/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Mitchelton FC (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	North Lakes United (W)

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	North Lakes United (W)	16	12	2	2	57	12	38
2	Caboolture FC (W)	16	11	4	1	43	13	37
3	Mitchelton FC (W)	16	8	3	5	40	25	27
4	The Gap NPL (W)	16	8	1	7	40	44	25
5	Grange Thistle (W)	15	6	3	6	29	30	21
6	Peninsula Power (W)	16	6	2	8	29	40	20
7	Palm Beach SC (W)	16	5	3	8	25	32	18
8	Virginia United SC (W)	16	5	2	9	12	32	17
9	Logan Lightning (W)	15	5	0	10	24	49	15
10	Moreton City Excelsior (W)	16	1	4	11	16	38	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mitchelton FC (W)	North Lakes United (W)
Moreton City Excelsior (W)	5-2 W	6-0 W
Logan Lightning (W)	3-1 W	8-1 W
Virginia United SC (W)	4-1 W	3-0 W
Palm Beach SC (W)	2-0 W	3-1 W
Grange Thistle (W)	3-1 W	2-3 L
The Gap NPL (W)	3-4 L	6-1 W
Peninsula Power (W)	2-2 D	0-1 L
Caboolture FC (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: North Lakes United (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mitchelton FC (W)

LLLDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-2	5-2	4	2	W
25/07	Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
18/07	Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
12/07	Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
04/07	Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
19/06	The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	2-3	3-4	4	3	L
15/06	Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-2	2-2	5	1	D
30/05	Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
24/05	North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
15/05	North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women	1-1	1-4	–	–	L

North Lakes United (W)

WWLWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	5-0	8-1	10	0	W
25/07	Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-1	3-1	7	0	W
18/07	The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-1	6-1	2	0	W
14/07	Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
11/07	Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/07	Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	2-0	6-0	7	1	W
20/06	Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
09/06	Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	13	2	L
05/06	Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
24/05	Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mitchelton FC (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an North Lakes United (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Mitchelton FC (W) 18%, draw 18%, North Lakes United (W) 64%.

How many goals are expected in Mitchelton FC (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Mitchelton FC (W) 1.32 · North Lakes United (W) 2.57), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Mitchelton FC (W) vs North Lakes United (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.