Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 25/07, 10:00
Prediction: Mitchelton FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.4Total
Mitchelton FC (W)3.09
Logan Lightning (W)1.31
1X2
Mitchelton FC (W)
Draw
Logan Lightning (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mitchelton FC (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Logan Lightning (W)
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mitchelton FC (W)
5–1–0
Logan Lightning (W)
(6 last)
- Logan Lightning (W)0-4Mitchelton FC (W)
- Mitchelton FC (W)4-1Logan Lightning (W)
- Mitchelton FC (W)5-3Logan Lightning (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mitchelton FC (W) 1528 · Logan Lightning (W) 1437
| Mitchelton FC (W) | Draw | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 15% | 13% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mitchelton FC (W) (rating 1528 vs 1437).
- H2H favours Mitchelton FC (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mitchelton FC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.3 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mitchelton FC (W) 5–1–0 Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
| 23/07/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Mitchelton FC (W) | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 14/06/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Mitchelton FC (W) | 5-3 HT 2-2 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 20/03/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
| 10/09/21 Australia FQPL Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
| 08/06/21 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Mitchelton FC (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 39 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Grange Thistle (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 29 | 17 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 36 | 17 |
| 8 | Logan Lightning (W) | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 38 | 15 |
| 9 | Virginia United SC (W) | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mitchelton FC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia United SC (W) | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 3-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 2-2 D | 4-2 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-1 L | 1-5 L |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-1 L | 0-6 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Mitchelton FC (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mitchelton FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mitchelton FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mitchelton FC (W) win (72%). Probabilities: Mitchelton FC (W) 72%, draw 16%, Logan Lightning (W) 12%.
How many goals are expected in Mitchelton FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model expects 4.4 goals (Mitchelton FC (W) 3.09 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mitchelton FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.