Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 25/07, 09:00
Prediction: Virginia United SC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
Virginia United SC (W)1.82
Moreton City Excelsior (W)1.32
1X2
Virginia United SC (W)
Draw
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Virginia United SC (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Virginia United SC (W)
2–3–0
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
(5 last)
- Moreton City Excelsior (W)2-2Virginia United SC (W)
- Virginia United SC (W)2-1Moreton City Excelsior (W)
- Moreton City Excelsior (W)1-2Virginia United SC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virginia United SC (W) 1433 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1431
| Virginia United SC (W) | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Virginia United SC (W): 2-3-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Virginia United SC (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.5 | 1.1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0 | 1.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virginia United SC (W) 2–3–0 Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 11/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
| 13/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 12/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Virginia United SC (W) |
| 23/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Virginia United SC (W) | 4-4 HT 3-1 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 39 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 21 |
| 5 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 6 | Grange Thistle (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 29 | 17 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 36 | 17 |
| 8 | Logan Lightning (W) | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 38 | 15 |
| 9 | Virginia United SC (W) | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 14 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virginia United SC (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 0-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 5 L | 0 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Moreton City Excelsior (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virginia United SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 12/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Virginia United SC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Virginia United SC (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Virginia United SC (W) 49%, draw 24%, Moreton City Excelsior (W) 27%.
How many goals are expected in Virginia United SC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model expects 3.13 goals (Virginia United SC (W) 1.82 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1.32), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Virginia United SC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.