Prediction: Peninsula Power (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Expected goals: 3.83 (Peninsula Power (W) 2.25 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1.57). The model gives 52% home, 22% draw, 26% away. Over 3.75 goals (50%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Peninsula Power (W) sits at 3-2-5 (W-D-L), while Moreton City Excelsior (W) arrives on a 1-4-5 run. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Peninsula Power (W) won 1 and Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1, with 1 draw.
| Peninsula Power (W) | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (W) (rating 1487 vs 1434).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Peninsula Power (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 3.4 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.6 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.1 | 1.3 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0.2 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Peninsula Power (W) 1–1–1 Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Peninsula Power (W) |
| 16/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Peninsula Power (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
| 24/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Peninsula Power (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 6 | 28 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 31 | 19 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 15 |
| 5 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 15 |
| 6 | Logan Lightning (W) | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 15 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 32 | 14 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 14 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Peninsula Power (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia United SC (W) | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 2-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| North Lakes United (W) | 1-0 W | 0-6 L |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 2-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 3-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Moreton City Excelsior (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Peninsula Power (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 09/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/04 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-5 | 1-11 | – | – | L |
| 10/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 10/04 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Peninsula Power (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Peninsula Power (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Peninsula Power (W) 52%, draw 22%, Moreton City Excelsior (W) 26%.
How many goals are expected in Peninsula Power (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Peninsula Power (W) 2.25 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Peninsula Power (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.