Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 11/07, 10:15
Prediction: North Lakes United (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
North Lakes United (W)1.99
Caboolture FC (W)1.5
1X2
North Lakes United (W)
Draw
Caboolture FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Lakes United (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Caboolture FC (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Lakes United (W)
1–0
Caboolture FC (W)
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Lakes United (W) 1620 · Caboolture FC (W) 1580
| North Lakes United (W) | Draw | Caboolture FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 49% | 22% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Lakes United (W) (rating 1620 vs 1580).
- High corners: 16.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Lakes United (W) | Caboolture FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.7 / 0.5 | 3.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.3 | 2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.8 / 9.5 | 3.6 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0.3 | 1.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Lakes United (W) 1–0–0 Caboolture FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | North Lakes United (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 6 | 28 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 33 | 22 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 15 |
| 5 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 15 |
| 6 | Logan Lightning (W) | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
| 7 | Peninsula Power (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 32 | 14 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 14 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 27 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Lakes United (W) | Caboolture FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 6-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 3-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 6-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 5-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 1 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: North Lakes United (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Lakes United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/04 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
5-1 | 11-1 | – | – | W |
Caboolture FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
5-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Lakes United (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a North Lakes United (W) win (49%). Probabilities: North Lakes United (W) 49%, draw 23%, Caboolture FC (W) 29%.
How many goals are expected in North Lakes United (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)?
The model expects 3.49 goals (North Lakes United (W) 1.99 · Caboolture FC (W) 1.5), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in North Lakes United (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.