Prediction: Caboolture FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)
Expected goals: 4.58 (Caboolture FC (W) 3.29 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.29). The model gives 82% home, 11% draw, 8% away. Under 4.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Recent form leaves Caboolture FC (W) with 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Logan Lightning (W) has piled up 6-0-4 in the same span. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Caboolture FC (W) won 3 and Logan Lightning (W) 1.
| Caboolture FC (W) | Draw | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 87% | 8% | 5% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caboolture FC (W) (rating 1586 vs 1492).
- H2H favours Caboolture FC (W): 3-0-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caboolture FC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.3 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.8 | 2.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caboolture FC (W) 3–0–1 Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Caboolture FC (W) |
| 02/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Caboolture FC (W) |
| 03/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caboolture FC (W) | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | North Lakes United (W) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 16 |
| 4 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 15 |
| 5 | Logan Lightning (W) | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 15 |
| 6 | Virginia United SC (W) | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 14 |
| 7 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 12 |
| 8 | Peninsula Power (W) | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 11 |
| 9 | Grange Thistle (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 8 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caboolture FC (W) | Logan Lightning (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-1 D | 4-3 W |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-1 W | 4-3 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 4-0 W | 4-2 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Caboolture FC (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caboolture FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
5-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-9 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 17/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caboolture FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caboolture FC (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Caboolture FC (W) 82%, draw 11%, Logan Lightning (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Caboolture FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model expects 4.58 goals (Caboolture FC (W) 3.29 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Caboolture FC (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.