Football · Finland Ykkonen · 25/07, 15:00

Prediction: SalPa vs PK Keski-Uusimaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

SalPa2.24

PK Keski-Uusimaa1.46

1X2

54% 22% 24%

SalPa Draw PK Keski-Uusimaa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDDWW

PK Keski-Uusimaa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWLWDL

Head-to-head

SalPa 0–1 PK Keski-Uusimaa (1 last)

PK Keski-Uusimaa2-0SalPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 1555 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1513

	SalPa	Draw	PK Keski-Uusimaa
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa (rating 1555 vs 1513).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa	PK Keski-Uusimaa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.76 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.01
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +6’	1.65	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:12	1.76	4.01	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 0–0–1 PK Keski-Uusimaa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-0 HT 1-0	SalPa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	15	11	1	3	29	9	34
2	RoPS	15	8	5	2	31	16	29
3	SalPa	15	7	5	3	31	25	26
4	JJK	16	7	4	5	40	29	25
5	VJS Vantaa	15	6	5	4	28	20	23
6	OLS	16	6	5	5	30	23	23
7	PK Keski-Uusimaa	15	6	4	5	28	22	22
8	FC Jazz	15	6	2	7	18	23	17
9	TPV	15	4	4	7	19	25	16
10	FC Inter II	15	4	3	8	26	41	15
11	KUPS Akatemia	15	2	3	10	25	37	9
12	KPV	15	2	3	10	13	48	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa	PK Keski-Uusimaa
FC Inter II	2-1 W	1-2 L
Tampere Utd	1-0 W	0-0 D
VJS Vantaa	2-2 D	1-3 L
RoPS	2-2 D	3-4 L
KUPS Akatemia	4-3 W	3-0 W
OLS	0-5 L	1-1 D
FC Jazz	2-1 W	2-1 W
TPV	4-2 W	2-2 D
JJK	2-2 D	3-1 W
KPV	6-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa

WDWWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
27/06	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
12/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-3	9	4	W
06/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-5	6	4	L
28/05	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
23/05	TPV Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-2	5	3	W
16/05	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
09/05	KPV Finland Ykkonen	4-0	6-0	6	1	W

PK Keski-Uusimaa

DLWWDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-3	5	4	L
18/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
11/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
05/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-2	3-4	6	7	L
28/06	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	3-1	11	5	W
14/06	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-2	4	8	D
06/06	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
29/05	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-0	9	4	W
24/05	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
09/05	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa win (54%). Probabilities: SalPa 54%, draw 22%, PK Keski-Uusimaa 24%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

The model expects 3.7 goals (SalPa 2.24 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa vs PK Keski-Uusimaa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.