Football · Finland Ykkonen · 01/08, 17:00

Prediction: TPV vs RoPS

Team pages: TPV · RoPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

TPV1.16

RoPS1.87

1X2

23% 23% 54%

TPV Draw RoPS

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

TPV 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWWWL

RoPS 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDWWDW

Head-to-head

TPV 0–1 RoPS (1 last)

RoPS1-0TPV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV 1479 · RoPS 1554

	TPV	Draw	RoPS
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RoPS (rating 1479 vs 1554).
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV	RoPS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:18 +2’	3.80	4.00	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV 0–0–1 RoPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	RoPS	1-0 HT 0-0	TPV

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	16	11	2	3	31	11	35
2	RoPS	16	9	5	2	35	16	32
3	OLS	17	7	5	5	32	24	26
4	SalPa	16	7	5	4	31	26	26
5	JJK	17	7	4	6	40	33	25
6	PK Keski-Uusimaa	16	7	4	5	29	22	25
7	VJS Vantaa	16	6	6	4	30	22	24
8	FC Jazz	16	7	2	7	22	23	20
9	TPV	16	4	4	8	19	29	16
10	FC Inter II	16	4	4	8	28	43	16
11	KUPS Akatemia	16	2	4	10	27	39	10
12	KPV	16	2	3	11	14	50	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV	RoPS
FC Jazz	0-4 L	1-2 L
KUPS Akatemia	3-1 W	1-0 W
KPV	3-1 W	1-1 D
JJK	1-0 W	4-0 W
VJS Vantaa	1-2 L	2-0 W
PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-2 D	4-3 W
FC Inter II	1-1 D	2-0 W
Tampere Utd	0-3 L	0-1 L
SalPa	2-4 L	2-2 D
OLS	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RoPS (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV

DLLDDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
05/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
29/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
14/06	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
06/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
29/05	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-3	2	1	L
23/05	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-3	2-4	8	3	L
16/05	OLS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	8	5	D

RoPS

LWDLWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
20/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
10/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
05/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	4-3	4	7	W
27/06	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	12	3	D
13/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
06/06	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
02/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
16/05	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV vs RoPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RoPS win (54%). Probabilities: TPV 23%, draw 23%, RoPS 54%.

How many goals are expected in TPV vs RoPS?

The model expects 3.04 goals (TPV 1.16 · RoPS 1.87), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV vs RoPS?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.