Football · Finland Ykkonen · 30/07, 18:00

Prediction: FC Jazz vs KUPS Akatemia

Team pages: FC Jazz · KUPS Akatemia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

FC Jazz2.22

KUPS Akatemia1.48

1X2

54% 22% 25%

FC Jazz Draw KUPS Akatemia

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Jazz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLLLWW

KUPS Akatemia 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLDLD

Head-to-head

FC Jazz 3–2 KUPS Akatemia (5 last)

KUPS Akatemia1-2FC Jazz
FC Jazz2-1KUPS Akatemia
KUPS Akatemia2-1FC Jazz
KUPS Akatemia2-0FC Jazz
FC Jazz6-1KUPS Akatemia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Jazz 1514 · KUPS Akatemia 1436

	FC Jazz	Draw	KUPS Akatemia
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Jazz (rating 1514 vs 1436).
H2H favours FC Jazz: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Jazz	KUPS Akatemia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	2 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.7 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.4	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:06 +2’	1.67	4.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:08	1.93	3.95	3.23
21:12	1.85▼	4.05▲	3.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Jazz 3–0–2 KUPS Akatemia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	KUPS Akatemia	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Jazz
16/07/25 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	2-1 HT 1-1	KUPS Akatemia
20/04/25 Finland Ykkonen	KUPS Akatemia	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Jazz
29/06/24 Finland Ykkonen	KUPS Akatemia	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Jazz
27/04/24 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	6-1 HT 3-0	KUPS Akatemia

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	16	11	2	3	31	11	35
2	RoPS	16	9	5	2	35	16	32
3	OLS	17	7	5	5	32	24	26
4	SalPa	16	7	5	4	31	26	26
5	JJK	17	7	4	6	40	33	25
6	PK Keski-Uusimaa	16	7	4	5	29	22	25
7	VJS Vantaa	16	6	6	4	30	22	24
8	FC Jazz	16	7	2	7	22	23	20
9	TPV	16	4	4	8	19	29	16
10	FC Inter II	16	4	4	8	28	43	16
11	KUPS Akatemia	16	2	4	10	27	39	10
12	KPV	16	2	3	11	14	50	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Jazz	KUPS Akatemia
TPV	4-0 W	1-3 L
JJK	3-1 W	4-4 D
PK Keski-Uusimaa	1-2 L	0-3 L
KPV	0-1 L	4-1 W
Tampere Utd	0-1 L	2-3 L
FC Inter II	1-1 D	2-4 L
VJS Vantaa	1-1 D	2-2 D
SalPa	1-2 L	3-4 L
OLS	2-1 W	2-2 D
RoPS	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Jazz (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Jazz

WWLDDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
18/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
11/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
02/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
25/06	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
06/06	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
28/05	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
24/05	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
16/05	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	2	4	W

KUPS Akatemia

LLLWLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-2	4	5	D
18/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
11/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	2-2	4-4	6	7	D
04/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-3	6	8	L
28/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	1-2	2-2	3	4	D
12/06	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-3	3-4	5	4	L
05/06	KPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-1	4	4	W
29/05	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
24/05	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
17/05	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-4	14	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Jazz vs KUPS Akatemia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Jazz win (54%). Probabilities: FC Jazz 54%, draw 22%, KUPS Akatemia 25%.

How many goals are expected in FC Jazz vs KUPS Akatemia?

The model expects 3.71 goals (FC Jazz 2.22 · KUPS Akatemia 1.48), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Jazz vs KUPS Akatemia?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.