Football · Finland Ykkonen · 01/08, 16:00

Prediction: KPV vs SalPa

Team pages: KPV · SalPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

KPV1.36

SalPa2.67

1X2

17% 19% 64%

KPV Draw SalPa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

KPV 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLDL

SalPa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDDWWL

Head-to-head

KPV 1–1–2 SalPa (4 last)

SalPa6-0KPV
SalPa2-0KPV
SalPa2-2KPV
KPV1-0SalPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KPV 1416 · SalPa 1546

	KPV	Draw	SalPa
Our model	17%	18%	65%
Market	16%	20%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa (rating 1416 vs 1546).
H2H favours SalPa: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KPV	SalPa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.9	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.50

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +10’	5.50	4.50	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KPV 1–1–2 SalPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	SalPa	6-0 HT 4-0	KPV
27/09/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	SalPa	2-0 HT 0-0	KPV
19/08/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	SalPa	2-2 HT 1-0	KPV
08/06/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	KPV	1-0 HT 0-0	SalPa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	16	11	2	3	31	11	35
2	RoPS	16	9	5	2	35	16	32
3	OLS	17	7	5	5	32	24	26
4	SalPa	16	7	5	4	31	26	26
5	JJK	17	7	4	6	40	33	25
6	PK Keski-Uusimaa	16	7	4	5	29	22	25
7	VJS Vantaa	16	6	6	4	30	22	24
8	FC Jazz	16	7	2	7	22	23	20
9	TPV	16	4	4	8	19	29	16
10	FC Inter II	16	4	4	8	28	43	16
11	KUPS Akatemia	16	2	4	10	27	39	10
12	KPV	16	2	3	11	14	50	9

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KPV	SalPa
OLS	1-2 L	0-5 L
RoPS	1-1 D	2-2 D
TPV	1-3 L	4-2 W
FC Jazz	1-0 W	2-1 W
PK Keski-Uusimaa	1-3 L	0-1 L
JJK	2-3 L	2-2 D
KUPS Akatemia	1-4 L	4-3 W
FC Inter II	4-2 W	2-1 W
VJS Vantaa	0-5 L	2-2 D
Tampere Utd	0-6 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KPV

LLWLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
11/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
02/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
28/06	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-3	2	5	L
13/06	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
05/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
29/05	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-2	7	6	W
23/05	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-4	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-6	2	0	L

SalPa

DWWLWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
27/06	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
12/06	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-3	9	4	W
06/06	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-5	6	4	L
28/05	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
23/05	TPV Finland Ykkonen	3-1	4-2	5	3	W
16/05	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KPV vs SalPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SalPa win (64%). Probabilities: KPV 17%, draw 19%, SalPa 64%.

How many goals are expected in KPV vs SalPa?

The model expects 4.03 goals (KPV 1.36 · SalPa 2.67), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KPV vs SalPa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.