Prediction: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
| Ogre United | Draw | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1473 vs 1518).
- H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.5 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.5 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 0–0–2 BFC Daugavpils
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Ogre United |
| 07/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Ogre United |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 16 | 56 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 40 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 34 | 28 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | FK Jelgava | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 25 |
| 7 | SK Super Nova | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 24 |
| 8 | SC Grobinas | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 20 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 44 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 55 | 13 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|
| SK Super Nova | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| FK Liepaja | 0-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Tukums 2000 | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| RFS | 0-6 L | 1-3 L |
| FK Jelgava | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Riga FC | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| FK Auda | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| SC Grobinas | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ogre United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Valmiera FC Latvia Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 25/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
BFC Daugavpils
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia Cup |
1-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
According to our model, the most likely result is an BFC Daugavpils win (52%). Probabilities: Ogre United 24%, draw 24%, BFC Daugavpils 52%.
How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Ogre United 1.18 · BFC Daugavpils 1.82), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.