Football · Latvia Virsliga · 26/07, 18:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs BFC Daugavpils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

FK Auda1.64

BFC Daugavpils0.88

1X2

55% 25% 20%

FK Auda Draw BFC Daugavpils

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDLDW

BFC Daugavpils 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDLWDW

Head-to-head

FK Auda 1–1–4 BFC Daugavpils (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1518 · BFC Daugavpils 1539

	FK Auda	Draw	BFC Daugavpils
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	BFC Daugavpils
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.2	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.15

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +3’	1.60	3.90	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 1–1–4 BFC Daugavpils

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Auda
12/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-3 HT 0-1	BFC Daugavpils
05/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Auda
20/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-3 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils
20/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-1 HT 1-0	BFC Daugavpils
04/04/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	23	19	2	2	55	16	59
2	Riga FC	23	18	4	1	68	20	58
3	FK Auda	22	12	4	6	37	26	40
4	BFC Daugavpils	23	8	6	9	29	29	30
5	FK Liepaja	22	8	4	10	28	34	28
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	23	6	7	10	24	39	25
8	SC Grobinas	23	4	8	11	15	35	20
9	Tukums 2000	23	3	8	12	38	47	17
10	Ogre United	23	3	4	16	21	59	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja	1-0 W	3-1 W
RFS	1-1 D	1-3 L
Riga FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
SC Grobinas	0-0 D	1-0 W
SK Super Nova	2-0 W	0-0 D
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Jelgava	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ogre United	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Auda

WWWDLWDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Cup	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
17/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
30/05	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	11	W
26/05	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
22/05	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W

BFC Daugavpils

LDDDWDLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
11/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia Cup	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
04/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
30/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
25/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
20/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
12/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
31/05	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
26/05	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Auda win (55%). Probabilities: FK Auda 55%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 20%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model expects 2.52 goals (FK Auda 1.64 · BFC Daugavpils 0.88), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.