Prediction: FK Jelgava vs RFS
| FK Jelgava | Draw | RFS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| Market | 12% | 16% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1494 vs 1599).
- H2H favours RFS: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Jelgava | RFS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.3 | 3 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jelgava 1–0–5 RFS
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 Latvia Cup | RFS | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 21/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 4-0 HT 1-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 08/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-1 | RFS |
| 13/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 1-4 HT 0-3 | FK Jelgava |
| 12/07/25 Latvia Cup | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RFS |
| 26/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-0 | RFS |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riga FC | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 68 | 20 | 58 |
| 2 | RFS | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 16 | 56 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 40 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 34 | 28 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | FK Jelgava | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 25 |
| 7 | SK Super Nova | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 24 |
| 8 | SC Grobinas | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 20 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 38 | 47 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 55 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Jelgava | RFS |
|---|---|---|
| Riga FC | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| SC Grobinas | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| SK Super Nova | 5-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Ogre United | 0-2 L | 6-0 W |
| FK Auda | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| FK Liepaja | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: RFS (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Jelgava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | RFS Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
RFS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | FK Jelgava Latvia Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 09/07 | Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 22/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 13/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Jelgava vs RFS?
According to our model, the most likely result is an RFS win (71%). Probabilities: FK Jelgava 11%, draw 18%, RFS 71%.
How many goals are expected in FK Jelgava vs RFS?
The model expects 3.1 goals (FK Jelgava 0.81 · RFS 2.3), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Jelgava vs RFS?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.