Football · Latvia Virsliga · 26/07, 17:30

Prediction: FK Jelgava vs FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

FK Jelgava1.18

FK Liepaja1.56

1X2

28% 27% 45%

FK Jelgava Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Jelgava 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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FK Liepaja 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Jelgava 0–3–3 FK Liepaja (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Jelgava 1479 · FK Liepaja 1505

	FK Jelgava	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Jelgava	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.1	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.30

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +3’	3.25	3.30	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jelgava 0–3–3 FK Liepaja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
12/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Jelgava
27/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Liepaja	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Jelgava
25/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-2 HT 2-2	FK Jelgava
02/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Liepaja
30/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	23	19	2	2	55	16	59
2	Riga FC	23	18	4	1	68	20	58
3	FK Auda	22	12	4	6	37	26	40
4	BFC Daugavpils	23	8	6	9	29	29	30
5	FK Liepaja	22	8	4	10	28	34	28
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	23	6	7	10	24	39	25
8	SC Grobinas	23	4	8	11	15	35	20
9	Tukums 2000	23	3	8	12	38	47	17
10	Ogre United	23	3	4	16	21	59	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Jelgava	FK Liepaja
RFS	0-1 L	0-2 L
Riga FC	0-3 L	0-4 L
SC Grobinas	2-0 W	0-1 L
SK Super Nova	5-1 W	2-1 W
Tukums 2000	4-1 W	3-0 W
Ogre United	0-2 L	4-0 W
FK Auda	1-1 D	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Jelgava (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Jelgava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
12/07	RFS Latvia Cup	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
03/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-1	5-1	5	5	W
21/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
17/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
13/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
31/05	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	11	1	D
26/05	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

FK Liepaja

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
11/07	FK Auda Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
21/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
16/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
12/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
30/05	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-0	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Liepaja win (45%). Probabilities: FK Jelgava 28%, draw 27%, FK Liepaja 45%.

How many goals are expected in FK Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 2.75 goals (FK Jelgava 1.18 · FK Liepaja 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Jelgava vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.