Football · Latvia Virsliga · 27/07, 17:00

Prediction: Tukums 2000 vs RFS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

Tukums 20000.93

RFS2.93

1X2

8% 14% 78%

Tukums 2000 Draw RFS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Tukums 2000 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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RFS 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tukums 2000 0–6 RFS (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tukums 2000 1383 · RFS 1626

	Tukums 2000	Draw	RFS
Our model	8%	14%	77%
Market	8%	14%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1383 vs 1626).
H2H favours RFS: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tukums 2000	RFS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.5	2.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

111.00

X6.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)2.00

2 (-2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +5’	11.00	6.50	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tukums 2000 0–0–6 RFS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	3-1 HT 2-0	Tukums 2000
13/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-2 HT 0-1	RFS
19/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-4 HT 2-2	RFS
26/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	6-2 HT 3-2	Tukums 2000
25/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-5 HT 0-3	RFS
09/04/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	2-0 HT 2-0	Tukums 2000

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	23	19	2	2	55	16	59
2	Riga FC	23	18	4	1	68	20	58
3	FK Auda	22	12	4	6	37	26	40
4	BFC Daugavpils	23	8	6	9	29	29	30
5	FK Liepaja	22	8	4	10	28	34	28
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	23	6	7	10	24	39	25
8	SC Grobinas	23	4	8	11	15	35	20
9	Tukums 2000	23	3	8	12	38	47	17
10	Ogre United	23	3	4	16	21	59	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tukums 2000	RFS
Riga FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
SC Grobinas	1-3 L	3-1 W
Ogre United	2-3 L	6-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-4 L	1-0 W
FK Auda	2-1 W	1-1 D
BFC Daugavpils	1-1 D	3-1 W
FK Liepaja	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: RFS (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tukums 2000

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
11/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Cup	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
05/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
01/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	8	5	L
21/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
17/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
12/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/05	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-3	4	5	L
25/05	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	0	4	L

RFS

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
16/07	Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Cup	1-0	2-0	14	3	W
09/07	Glentoran UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
04/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
30/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	6-0	8	4	W
17/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-2	1	9	L
13/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tukums 2000 vs RFS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RFS win (78%). Probabilities: Tukums 2000 8%, draw 14%, RFS 78%.

How many goals are expected in Tukums 2000 vs RFS?

The model expects 3.86 goals (Tukums 2000 0.93 · RFS 2.93), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tukums 2000 vs RFS?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.