Prediction: Riga FC vs Tukums 2000
| Riga FC | Draw | Tukums 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 82% | 11% | 7% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1604 vs 1405).
- H2H favours Riga FC: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Riga FC | Tukums 2000 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.9 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC 4–2–0 Tukums 2000
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Riga FC |
| 09/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Tukums 2000 |
| 24/10/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tukums 2000 |
| 03/08/25 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Riga FC |
| 12/07/25 Latvia Cup | Riga FC | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Tukums 2000 |
| 31/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Tukums 2000 |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 16 | 56 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 65 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 26 | 40 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 34 | 28 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | FK Jelgava | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 25 |
| 7 | SK Super Nova | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 24 |
| 8 | SC Grobinas | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 20 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 44 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 55 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Riga FC | Tukums 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| FK Jelgava | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| FK Auda | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| BFC Daugavpils | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| FK Liepaja | 4-0 W | 0-3 L |
| RFS | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Ogre United | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| SC Grobinas | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Riga FC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Riga FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Ararat Armenia UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 10/07 | Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia Cup |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 07/07 | Ararat Armenia UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 29/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Tukums 2000
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | SK Super Nova Latvia Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/07 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 26/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Riga FC vs Tukums 2000?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC win (80%). Probabilities: Riga FC 80%, draw 13%, Tukums 2000 7%.
How many goals are expected in Riga FC vs Tukums 2000?
The model expects 3.61 goals (Riga FC 2.81 · Tukums 2000 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Riga FC vs Tukums 2000?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.