Football · Latvia Virsliga · 02/08, 15:00

Prediction: Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja

Team pages: Tukums 2000 · FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Tukums 20001.32

FK Liepaja1.8

1X2

27% 25% 48%

Tukums 2000 Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tukums 2000 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLLL

FK Liepaja 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Tukums 2000 0–3–3 FK Liepaja (6 last)

FK Liepaja3-0Tukums 2000
Tukums 20002-2FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja4-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-3FK Liepaja
Tukums 20002-2FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja0-0Tukums 2000

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tukums 2000 1402 · FK Liepaja 1496

	Tukums 2000	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1402 vs 1496).
H2H favours FK Liepaja: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tukums 2000	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.60

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	1.85 → 1.91▲	Pinn 2.02

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:50 +14’	3.25	3.60	1.85
23:55 +1’	3.10▼	3.60	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:48	3.05	3.92	2.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tukums 2000 0–3–3 FK Liepaja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	3-0 HT 2-0	Tukums 2000
17/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
14/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	4-1 HT 2-1	Tukums 2000
25/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Liepaja
06/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	2-2 HT 2-1	FK Liepaja
12/03/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	0-0 HT 0-0	Tukums 2000

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	24	20	2	2	56	16	62
2	Riga FC	23	18	4	1	68	20	58
3	FK Auda	23	13	4	6	38	26	43
4	BFC Daugavpils	25	9	6	10	31	31	33
5	FK Liepaja	23	9	4	10	30	34	31
6	SK Super Nova	23	8	3	12	25	35	27
7	FK Jelgava	25	6	7	12	25	43	25
8	SC Grobinas	24	4	9	11	17	37	21
9	Tukums 2000	24	3	8	13	38	48	17
10	Ogre United	24	3	5	16	23	61	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tukums 2000	FK Liepaja
RFS	0-1 L	0-2 L
Riga FC	1-3 L	0-4 L
Ogre United	2-3 L	4-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-4 L	2-0 W
FK Auda	2-1 W	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tukums 2000 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tukums 2000

LDWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
18/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
11/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Cup	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
05/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
01/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	8	5	L
21/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
17/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
12/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/05	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-3	4	5	L

FK Liepaja

LLWLWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	FK Austria Vienna UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-2	1-3	3	4	L
26/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/07	FK Austria Vienna UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
15/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
11/07	FK Auda Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/07	FK Decic Tuzi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
21/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Liepaja win (48%). Probabilities: Tukums 2000 27%, draw 25%, FK Liepaja 48%.

How many goals are expected in Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Tukums 2000 1.32 · FK Liepaja 1.8), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tukums 2000 vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.