Prediction: BFC Daugavpils vs FK Jelgava
Team pages: BFC Daugavpils · FK Jelgava
- FK Jelgava1-1BFC Daugavpils
- BFC Daugavpils1-0FK Jelgava
- FK Jelgava0-0BFC Daugavpils
- BFC Daugavpils2-0FK Jelgava
- BFC Daugavpils1-0FK Jelgava
- FK Jelgava4-1BFC Daugavpils
| BFC Daugavpils | Draw | FK Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1529 vs 1462).
- H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BFC Daugavpils | FK Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 3.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Daugavpils 3–2–1 FK Jelgava
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 1-1 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 16/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 18/10/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-0 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 27/07/25 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 25/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 10/04/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 4-1 HT 2-1 | BFC Daugavpils |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 24 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 56 | 16 | 62 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 68 | 20 | 58 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 43 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 34 | 31 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 30 | 30 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 35 | 27 |
| 7 | FK Jelgava | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 41 | 25 |
| 8 | SC Grobinas | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 21 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 38 | 48 | 17 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 61 | 14 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | BFC Daugavpils | FK Jelgava |
|---|---|---|
| FK Auda | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Ogre United | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Liepaja | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| RFS | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Riga FC | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| SC Grobinas | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| SK Super Nova | 0-0 D | 5-1 W |
| Tukums 2000 | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Jelgava (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BFC Daugavpils
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia Cup |
1-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
FK Jelgava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/07 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | RFS Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Jelgava?
According to our model, the most likely result is a BFC Daugavpils win (50%). Probabilities: BFC Daugavpils 50%, draw 27%, FK Jelgava 23%.
How many goals are expected in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Jelgava?
The model expects 2.38 goals (BFC Daugavpils 1.48 · FK Jelgava 0.9), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in BFC Daugavpils vs FK Jelgava?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.