Football · Latvia Virsliga · 29/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs SK Super Nova

Team pages: FK Auda · SK Super Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

FK Auda2.05

SK Super Nova0.77

1X2

67% 21% 12%

FK Auda Draw SK Super Nova

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDLDWWWW

SK Super Nova 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLWLD

Head-to-head

FK Auda 5–1–0 SK Super Nova (6 last)

SK Super Nova0-2FK Auda
SK Super Nova1-2FK Auda
FK Auda2-1SK Super Nova
FK Auda3-2SK Super Nova
FK Auda1-1SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova0-1FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1578 · SK Super Nova 1432

	FK Auda	Draw	SK Super Nova
Our model	66%	22%	12%
Market	67%	20%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1578 vs 1432).
H2H favours FK Auda: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	SK Super Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.2	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:21 +3’	1.33	4.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 5–1–0 SK Super Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Auda
01/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Auda
08/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-1 HT 1-0	SK Super Nova
22/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	3-2 HT 2-1	SK Super Nova
18/08/25 Latvia Cup	FK Auda	1-1 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
01/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	26	21	3	2	65	20	66
2	Riga FC	26	20	5	1	79	24	65
3	FK Auda	26	16	4	6	43	26	52
4	BFC Daugavpils	27	10	7	10	33	31	37
5	FK Liepaja	27	11	4	12	36	39	37
6	FK Jelgava	27	7	7	13	28	46	28
7	SK Super Nova	25	8	4	13	26	37	28
8	SC Grobinas	27	4	9	14	19	50	21
9	Tukums 2000	27	4	8	15	40	54	20
10	Ogre United	26	3	5	18	26	68	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	SK Super Nova
FK Liepaja	1-0 W	1-2 L
Tukums 2000	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	1-5 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	0-0 D
RFS	1-1 D	1-2 L
SC Grobinas	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Auda

DLWDLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
17/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

SK Super Nova

LLDLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
20/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
06/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-3	1-5	3	5	L
21/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
16/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	1	0	D
12/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
29/05	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs SK Super Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Auda win (67%). Probabilities: FK Auda 67%, draw 21%, SK Super Nova 12%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs SK Super Nova?

The model expects 2.82 goals (FK Auda 2.05 · SK Super Nova 0.77), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs SK Super Nova?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.