Football · Latvia Virsliga · 07/09, 18:00

Prediction: Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils

Team pages: Riga FC · BFC Daugavpils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Riga FC2.3

BFC Daugavpils0.94

1X2

68% 19% 14%

Riga FC Draw BFC Daugavpils

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Riga FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWDL

BFC Daugavpils 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLWWDL

Head-to-head

Riga FC 4–2–0 BFC Daugavpils (6 last)

BFC Daugavpils0-0Riga FC
BFC Daugavpils1-3Riga FC
Riga FC4-2BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils0-1Riga FC
Riga FC1-1BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils0-1Riga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Riga FC 1634 · BFC Daugavpils 1508

	Riga FC	Draw	BFC Daugavpils
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1634 vs 1508).
H2H favours Riga FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Riga FC	BFC Daugavpils
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.33▲	Bet365 1.33
X	6.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
2	9.50 → 6.50▼	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:44 +4’	1.18	6.25	9.50
21:33 +9’	1.33▲	5.00▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Riga FC 4–2–0 BFC Daugavpils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-0 HT 0-0	Riga FC
08/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	1-3 HT 0-1	Riga FC
14/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	4-2 HT 2-0	BFC Daugavpils
29/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-1 HT 0-0	Riga FC
06/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	1-1 HT 0-1	BFC Daugavpils
14/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-1 HT 0-0	Riga FC

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	27	22	3	2	68	20	69
2	Riga FC	27	20	5	2	81	27	65
3	FK Auda	27	16	5	6	44	27	53
4	FK Liepaja	28	12	4	12	39	41	40
5	BFC Daugavpils	28	10	7	11	33	32	37
6	FK Jelgava	28	8	7	13	32	47	31
7	SK Super Nova	26	8	5	13	27	38	29
8	SC Grobinas	28	5	9	14	20	50	24
9	Tukums 2000	28	4	8	16	41	58	20
10	Ogre United	27	3	5	19	26	71	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Riga FC	BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja	2-3 L	3-1 W
RFS	3-3 D	1-3 L
Ogre United	4-1 W	4-0 W
SC Grobinas	4-0 W	0-1 L
Tukums 2000	3-1 W	2-0 W
FK Jelgava	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Auda	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Riga FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Riga FC

WWDWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W
02/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
18/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-1	8	3	W
03/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
29/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
21/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	5	0	W
17/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-1	4	9	W

BFC Daugavpils

WDLWWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
26/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
04/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
30/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
25/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
20/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Riga FC win (68%). Probabilities: Riga FC 68%, draw 19%, BFC Daugavpils 14%.

How many goals are expected in Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Riga FC 2.3 · BFC Daugavpils 0.94), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.