Football · Latvia Virsliga · 07/09, 18:00

Prediction: RFS vs FK Liepaja

Team pages: RFS · FK Liepaja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

RFS2.53

FK Liepaja0.92

1X2

72% 17% 11%

RFS Draw FK Liepaja

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

RFS 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWDW

FK Liepaja 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

RFS 4–1–1 FK Liepaja (6 last)

FK Liepaja0-2RFS
RFS5-0FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja0-1RFS
FK Liepaja2-2RFS
RFS2-1FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja2-1RFS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFS 1582 · FK Liepaja 1476

	RFS	Draw	FK Liepaja
Our model	71%	18%	11%
Market	72%	17%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1582 vs 1476).
H2H favours RFS: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFS	FK Liepaja
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +5’	1.25	5.25	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS 4–1–1 FK Liepaja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	0-2 HT 0-0	RFS
08/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	5-0 HT 3-0	FK Liepaja
13/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	0-1 HT 0-1	RFS
28/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-2 HT 0-1	RFS
04/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
14/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-1 HT 1-1	RFS

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	27	22	3	2	68	20	69
2	Riga FC	27	20	5	2	81	27	65
3	FK Auda	27	16	5	6	44	27	53
4	FK Liepaja	28	12	4	12	39	41	40
5	BFC Daugavpils	28	10	7	11	33	32	37
6	FK Jelgava	28	8	7	13	32	47	31
7	SK Super Nova	26	8	5	13	27	38	29
8	SC Grobinas	28	5	9	14	20	50	24
9	Tukums 2000	28	4	8	16	41	58	20
10	Ogre United	27	3	5	19	26	71	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFS	FK Liepaja
Ogre United	3-0 W	4-0 W
Riga FC	3-3 D	3-2 W
SC Grobinas	6-1 W	3-1 W
Tukums 2000	1-0 W	1-2 L
FK Auda	1-1 D	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	3-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: RFS (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFS

LWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
23/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	4-0	6-1	6	2	W
27/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
04/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
30/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
22/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	6-0	8	4	W
17/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-2	1	9	L

FK Liepaja

LLLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
21/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
16/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFS vs FK Liepaja?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS win (72%). Probabilities: RFS 72%, draw 17%, FK Liepaja 11%.

How many goals are expected in RFS vs FK Liepaja?

The model expects 3.45 goals (RFS 2.53 · FK Liepaja 0.92), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in RFS vs FK Liepaja?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.