Football · Latvia Virsliga · 05/09, 16:00
Prediction: FK Jelgava vs SK Super Nova
Team pages: FK Jelgava · SK Super Nova
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
FK Jelgava1.57
SK Super Nova1.03
1X2
FK Jelgava
Draw
SK Super Nova
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Jelgava
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
SK Super Nova
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Jelgava
3–3–0
SK Super Nova
(6 last)
- SK Super Nova1-5FK Jelgava
- FK Jelgava1-0SK Super Nova
- SK Super Nova1-1FK Jelgava
- SK Super Nova1-1FK Jelgava
- FK Jelgava1-0SK Super Nova
- SK Super Nova0-0FK Jelgava
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Jelgava 1502 · SK Super Nova 1456
| FK Jelgava | Draw | SK Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Jelgava (rating 1502 vs 1456).
- H2H favours FK Jelgava: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Jelgava | SK Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.3 | 2.1 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jelgava 3–3–0 SK Super Nova
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/26 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 1-5 HT 1-3 | FK Jelgava |
| 06/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 1-0 HT 0-0 | SK Super Nova |
| 15/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Jelgava |
| 04/10/25 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 20/07/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SK Super Nova |
| 21/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | SK Super Nova | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Jelgava |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 27 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 68 | 20 | 69 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 27 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 81 | 27 | 65 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 27 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 27 | 53 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 39 | 41 | 40 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 32 | 37 |
| 6 | FK Jelgava | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 47 | 31 |
| 7 | SK Super Nova | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 38 | 29 |
| 8 | SC Grobinas | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 20 | 50 | 24 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 41 | 58 | 20 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 71 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Jelgava | SK Super Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Tukums 2000 | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Ogre United | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| FK Auda | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| SC Grobinas | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Jelgava
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 01/08 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 20/07 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
SK Super Nova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/07 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/07 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 01/07 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Jelgava vs SK Super Nova?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Jelgava win (49%). Probabilities: FK Jelgava 49%, draw 26%, SK Super Nova 24%.
How many goals are expected in FK Jelgava vs SK Super Nova?
The model expects 2.6 goals (FK Jelgava 1.57 · SK Super Nova 1.03), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Jelgava vs SK Super Nova?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.