Football · Latvia Virsliga · 31/08, 16:30

Prediction: FK Liepaja vs Riga FC

Team pages: FK Liepaja · Riga FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

FK Liepaja0.86

Riga FC2.01

1X2

15% 21% 64%

FK Liepaja Draw Riga FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Liepaja 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLWWL

Riga FC 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja 1–5 Riga FC (6 last)

Riga FC4-0FK Liepaja
Riga FC1-0FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja2-1Riga FC
Riga FC3-0FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja0-4Riga FC
FK Liepaja2-3Riga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1462 · Riga FC 1633

	FK Liepaja	Draw	Riga FC
Our model	14%	23%	63%
Market	16%	20%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1462 vs 1633).
H2H favours Riga FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Liepaja	Riga FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.50

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:44 +8’	5.75	4.50	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 1–0–5 Riga FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	4-0 HT 3-0	FK Liepaja
03/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja
07/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-1 HT 1-0	Riga FC
03/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
18/09/25 Latvia Cup	FK Liepaja	0-4 HT 0-2	Riga FC
19/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-3 HT 1-2	Riga FC

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	26	21	3	2	65	20	66
2	Riga FC	26	20	5	1	79	24	65
3	FK Auda	26	16	4	6	43	26	52
4	BFC Daugavpils	27	10	7	10	33	31	37
5	FK Liepaja	27	11	4	12	36	39	37
6	FK Jelgava	27	7	7	13	28	46	28
7	SK Super Nova	25	8	4	13	26	37	28
8	SC Grobinas	27	4	9	14	19	50	21
9	Tukums 2000	27	4	8	15	40	54	20
10	Ogre United	26	3	5	18	26	68	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Liepaja	Riga FC
FK Auda	0-1 L	2-0 W
SC Grobinas	3-1 W	4-0 W
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	3-1 W
BFC Daugavpils	1-3 L	0-0 D
Ogre United	4-0 W	4-1 W
RFS	0-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Riga FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Liepaja

WLLLWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
02/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
04/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
30/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	8	3	W
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
21/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
16/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
12/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-1	2	7	W

Riga FC

WWWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W
02/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	4-0	7	1	W
18/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-1	8	3	W
03/07	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	11	1	W
29/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
21/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	5	0	W
17/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	2-0	2-1	4	9	W
13/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	2-0	4-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Liepaja vs Riga FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Riga FC win (64%). Probabilities: FK Liepaja 15%, draw 21%, Riga FC 64%.

How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs Riga FC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (FK Liepaja 0.86 · Riga FC 2.01), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs Riga FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.