Football · Latvia Virsliga · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs SC Grobinas

Team pages: FK Auda · SC Grobinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FK Auda2.15

SC Grobinas0.99

1X2

63% 21% 16%

FK Auda Draw SC Grobinas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWWWWD

SC Grobinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDLLLW

Head-to-head

FK Auda 3–3–0 SC Grobinas (6 last)

FK Auda2-2SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-0FK Auda
FK Auda7-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-2FK Auda
SC Grobinas2-2FK Auda
FK Auda1-0SC Grobinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1571 · SC Grobinas 1459

	FK Auda	Draw	SC Grobinas
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1571 vs 1459).
H2H favours FK Auda: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	SC Grobinas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	6.50 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +3’	1.36	4.33	6.50
07:31 +7’	1.42▲	4.20▼	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 3–3–0 SC Grobinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Latvia Cup	FK Auda	2-2 HT 2-0	SC Grobinas
25/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Auda
07/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	7-0 HT 3-0	SC Grobinas
14/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Auda
09/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	2-2 HT 0-2	FK Auda
24/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	27	22	3	2	68	20	69
2	Riga FC	27	20	5	2	81	27	65
3	FK Auda	27	16	5	6	44	27	53
4	FK Liepaja	28	12	4	12	39	41	40
5	BFC Daugavpils	28	10	7	11	33	32	37
6	FK Jelgava	28	8	7	13	32	47	31
7	SK Super Nova	26	8	5	13	27	38	29
8	SC Grobinas	28	5	9	14	20	50	24
9	Tukums 2000	28	4	8	16	41	58	20
10	Ogre United	27	3	5	19	26	71	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	SC Grobinas
SK Super Nova	1-1 D	0-2 L
FK Liepaja	1-0 W	1-3 L
Tukums 2000	3-0 W	3-1 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	0-2 L
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	1-0 W
RFS	1-1 D	1-6 L
Riga FC	0-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Auda

LWDLDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
26/07	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
29/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
25/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	15	4	D
21/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
17/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	6	6	L

SC Grobinas

LDLWLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
29/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
25/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs SC Grobinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Auda win (63%). Probabilities: FK Auda 63%, draw 21%, SC Grobinas 16%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs SC Grobinas?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FK Auda 2.15 · SC Grobinas 0.99), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs SC Grobinas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.