Football · Latvia Virsliga · 29/08, 14:00

Prediction: SC Grobinas vs BFC Daugavpils

Team pages: SC Grobinas · BFC Daugavpils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

SC Grobinas1

BFC Daugavpils1.46

1X2

25% 27% 47%

SC Grobinas Draw BFC Daugavpils

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Grobinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLDLLL

BFC Daugavpils 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWLWWD

Head-to-head

SC Grobinas 2–1–3 BFC Daugavpils (6 last)

BFC Daugavpils1-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-1BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils0-1SC Grobinas
BFC Daugavpils3-2SC Grobinas
BFC Daugavpils3-2SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-0BFC Daugavpils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Grobinas 1467 · BFC Daugavpils 1547

	SC Grobinas	Draw	BFC Daugavpils
Our model	25%	29%	46%
Market	26%	26%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1467 vs 1547).
H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Grobinas	BFC Daugavpils
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +2’	3.40	3.40	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Grobinas 2–1–3 BFC Daugavpils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	1-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
02/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-1 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils
07/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
15/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	3-2 HT 1-1	SC Grobinas
26/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils	3-2 HT 1-2	SC Grobinas
04/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-0 HT 0-0	BFC Daugavpils

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	26	21	3	2	65	20	66
2	Riga FC	26	20	5	1	79	24	65
3	FK Auda	26	16	4	6	43	26	52
4	BFC Daugavpils	27	10	7	10	33	31	37
5	FK Liepaja	27	11	4	12	36	39	37
6	FK Jelgava	27	7	7	13	28	46	28
7	SK Super Nova	25	8	4	13	26	37	28
8	SC Grobinas	27	4	9	14	19	50	21
9	Tukums 2000	27	4	8	15	40	54	20
10	Ogre United	26	3	5	18	26	68	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Grobinas	BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja	1-3 L	3-1 W
RFS	1-6 L	1-3 L
Riga FC	0-4 L	0-0 D
Ogre United	2-2 D	4-0 W
SK Super Nova	0-2 L	0-0 D
Tukums 2000	3-1 W	2-0 W
FK Jelgava	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Auda	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Grobinas

WLDLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
20/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
29/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
25/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/06	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
16/06	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

BFC Daugavpils

DWDLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	10	5	W
26/07	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
04/07	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
30/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
25/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
20/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	7	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Grobinas vs BFC Daugavpils?

According to our model, the most likely result is an BFC Daugavpils win (47%). Probabilities: SC Grobinas 25%, draw 27%, BFC Daugavpils 47%.

How many goals are expected in SC Grobinas vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model expects 2.46 goals (SC Grobinas 1 · BFC Daugavpils 1.46), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Grobinas vs BFC Daugavpils?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.