Football · Latvia Virsliga · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Tukums 2000 vs FK Jelgava

Team pages: Tukums 2000 · FK Jelgava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Tukums 20001.41

FK Jelgava1.64

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Tukums 2000 Draw FK Jelgava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tukums 2000 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWLL

FK Jelgava 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Tukums 2000 1–3–2 FK Jelgava (6 last)

FK Jelgava4-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20005-0FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava2-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-1FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava1-1Tukums 2000
Tukums 20001-1FK Jelgava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tukums 2000 1421 · FK Jelgava 1480

	Tukums 2000	Draw	FK Jelgava
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Jelgava (rating 1421 vs 1480).
H2H favours FK Jelgava: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tukums 2000	FK Jelgava
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/0/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:15 +4’	2.80	3.40	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tukums 2000 1–3–2 FK Jelgava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	4-1 HT 1-0	Tukums 2000
01/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	5-0 HT 3-0	FK Jelgava
08/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	2-1 HT 1-1	Tukums 2000
09/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Jelgava
23/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-1 HT 1-1	Tukums 2000
17/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	Tukums 2000	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Jelgava

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	26	21	3	2	65	20	66
2	Riga FC	26	20	5	1	79	24	65
3	FK Auda	26	16	4	6	43	26	52
4	BFC Daugavpils	27	10	7	10	33	31	37
5	FK Liepaja	27	11	4	12	36	39	37
6	FK Jelgava	27	7	7	13	28	46	28
7	SK Super Nova	25	8	4	13	26	37	28
8	SC Grobinas	27	4	9	14	19	50	21
9	Tukums 2000	27	4	8	15	40	54	20
10	Ogre United	26	3	5	18	26	68	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tukums 2000	FK Jelgava
FK Auda	0-3 L	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	0-2 L	1-2 L
RFS	0-1 L	0-1 L
Riga FC	1-3 L	0-3 L
SC Grobinas	1-3 L	2-0 W
SK Super Nova	1-2 L	5-1 W
Ogre United	2-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 7 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Jelgava (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tukums 2000

WLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
08/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
02/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
27/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
18/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-3	2	3	L
05/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
01/07	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
26/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	8	5	L
21/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
17/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	2	6	W

FK Jelgava

DLWWWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
01/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
20/07	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
03/07	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-1	5-1	5	5	W
21/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
17/06	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
13/06	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tukums 2000 vs FK Jelgava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Jelgava win (42%). Probabilities: Tukums 2000 32%, draw 26%, FK Jelgava 42%.

How many goals are expected in Tukums 2000 vs FK Jelgava?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Tukums 2000 1.41 · FK Jelgava 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tukums 2000 vs FK Jelgava?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.