Football · Brazil Serie A · 08/10, 00:30

Prediction: Bragantino vs Mirassol

Team pages: Bragantino · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Bragantino1.53

Mirassol0.85

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Bragantino Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWLLDL

Mirassol 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDLWDW

Head-to-head

Bragantino 2–3–1 Mirassol (6 last)

Mirassol2-1Bragantino
Bragantino1-1Mirassol
Mirassol0-1Bragantino
Mirassol0-0Bragantino
Mirassol1-1Bragantino
Bragantino1-0Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino 1487 · Mirassol 1509

	Bragantino	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	52%	28%	20%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bragantino: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.79 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +4’	1.75	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +2’	1.79	3.78	4.40
01:18 +31’	1.80▲	3.79▲	4.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 2–3–1 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Copa do Brasil	Mirassol	2-1 HT 1-1	Bragantino
23/04/26 Copa do Brasil	Bragantino	1-1 HT 1-1	Mirassol
06/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	0-1 HT 0-0	Bragantino
22/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Mirassol	0-0 HT 0-0	Bragantino
02/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	1-1 HT 0-1	Bragantino
06/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-0 HT 0-0	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino	Mirassol
Flamengo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Botafogo	1-1 D	2-0 W
Coritiba	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bragantino

WDDLDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-2	2-3	10	3	L
30/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W

Mirassol

DWLLDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (53%). Probabilities: Bragantino 53%, draw 27%, Mirassol 20%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Bragantino 1.53 · Mirassol 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.