Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dinamo Samarqand vs FK Buxoro

Team pages: Dinamo Samarqand · FK Buxoro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Dinamo Samarqand1.94

FK Buxoro1.33

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Dinamo Samarqand Draw FK Buxoro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dinamo Samarqand 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDDWLL

FK Buxoro 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Dinamo Samarqand 1–3–2 FK Buxoro (6 last)

FK Buxoro3-1Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand4-1FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro2-2Dinamo Samarqand
FK Buxoro1-1Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand0-3FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-0Dinamo Samarqand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dinamo Samarqand 1503 · FK Buxoro 1496

	Dinamo Samarqand	Draw	FK Buxoro
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Buxoro: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dinamo Samarqand	FK Buxoro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +14’	1.91	3.40	3.40
19:36 +8’	1.70▼	3.60▲	4.10▲
21:56 +61’	1.80▲	3.50▼	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +4’	1.92	3.44	3.76
18:22 +82’	1.76▼	3.61▲	4.31▲
19:49 +188’	1.88▲	3.45▼	3.89▼
06:15 +65’	1.93▲	3.41▼	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dinamo Samarqand 1–3–2 FK Buxoro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	3-1 HT 0-1	Dinamo Samarqand
18/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	4-1 HT 0-1	FK Buxoro
17/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-2 HT 0-1	Dinamo Samarqand
20/04/21 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Buxoro	1-1 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
27/08/19 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	0-3 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
19/05/19 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	24	17	4	3	56	21	55
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	AGMK	24	11	6	7	34	31	39
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
6	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
7	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	24	10	3	11	24	30	33
9	FK Andijan	24	9	3	12	29	32	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	24	8	5	11	41	47	29
12	Termez Surkhon	24	7	7	10	19	28	28
13	FK Kokand 1912	24	5	8	11	24	34	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	24	7	2	15	24	40	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	24	5	8	11	20	34	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	24	1	1	22	11	48	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dinamo Samarqand	FK Buxoro
Navbahor Namangan	2-3 L	1-4 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 W	2-3 L
FK Kokand 1912	1-1 D	1-1 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-1 D	2-2 D
AGMK	1-0 W	2-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-2 L	2-1 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Buxoro (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dinamo Samarqand

WDLDWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
17/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	2-3	2-3	1	6	L
10/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
05/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
14/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	8	1	D
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W

FK Buxoro

LWDWWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-2	4	3	W
19/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
11/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
05/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dinamo Samarqand vs FK Buxoro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dinamo Samarqand win (50%). Probabilities: Dinamo Samarqand 50%, draw 25%, FK Buxoro 25%.

How many goals are expected in Dinamo Samarqand vs FK Buxoro?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Dinamo Samarqand 1.94 · FK Buxoro 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dinamo Samarqand vs FK Buxoro?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.