Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Lokomotiv Tashkent

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · Lokomotiv Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.08

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.26

1X2

31% 30% 39%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw Lokomotiv Tashkent

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLWDW

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 1–1–4 Lokomotiv Tashkent (6 last)

Lokomotiv Tashkent1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Lokomotiv Tashkent4-2Qizilqum Zarafshon
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon0-0Lokomotiv Tashkent
Qizilqum Zarafshon0-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-0Qizilqum Zarafshon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1515 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1561

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Our model	30%	31%	39%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Tashkent (rating 1515 vs 1561).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Tashkent: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.7	2.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.60 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.28
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +11’	2.88	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +165’	3.60	3.28	2.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1–1–4 Lokomotiv Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
25/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	4-2 HT 4-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
27/04/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-1 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
29/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
16/05/23 Uzbekistan Cup	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-2 HT 0-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
03/08/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	25	15	8	2	44	25	53
3	Navbahor Namangan	24	13	7	4	42	24	46
4	FK Buxoro	25	12	5	8	37	32	41
5	AGMK	24	11	6	7	34	31	39
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	24	11	6	7	39	30	39
7	Nasaf Qarshi	24	10	8	6	35	22	38
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	24	10	3	11	24	30	33
9	FK Andijan	24	9	3	12	29	32	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	35	38	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	24	8	5	11	41	47	29
12	Termez Surkhon	25	7	8	10	19	28	29
13	FC Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	26	41	26
14	FK Kokand 1912	24	5	8	11	24	34	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	24	5	8	11	20	34	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	25	1	1	23	12	50	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Lokomotiv Tashkent
Xorazm Urganch	3-1 W	3-1 W
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK Buxoro	3-2 W	1-2 L
Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-2 L	3-2 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-0 W	3-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qizilqum Zarafshon

LLWLWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
10/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
21/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
10/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Lokomotiv Tashkent

LWLWWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
11/10	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
20/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
11/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv Tashkent win (39%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 31%, draw 30%, Lokomotiv Tashkent 39%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.08 · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Lokomotiv Tashkent?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.