Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 23/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Buxoro vs Termez Surkhon

Team pages: FK Buxoro · Termez Surkhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

FK Buxoro1.42

Termez Surkhon0.9

1X2

48% 28% 23%

FK Buxoro Draw Termez Surkhon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Buxoro 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLLWW

Termez Surkhon 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWLWDD

Head-to-head

FK Buxoro 0–2–4 Termez Surkhon (6 last)

Termez Surkhon3-1FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon0-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro1-1Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon2-0FK Buxoro
Termez Surkhon5-2FK Buxoro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Buxoro 1501 · Termez Surkhon 1508

	FK Buxoro	Draw	Termez Surkhon
Our model	48%	30%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Buxoro	Termez Surkhon
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	0.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.83▲	Pinn 2.05 ★
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.00 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +7’	1.75	3.40	4.00
14:40 +28’	1.83▲	3.30▼	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +13’	2.05	3.21	3.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 0–2–4 Termez Surkhon

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	3-1 HT 3-1	FK Buxoro
30/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-1 HT 0-1	Termez Surkhon
04/07/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
20/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-1 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon
31/03/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
25/04/21 Uzbekistan Cup	Termez Surkhon	5-2 HT 3-2	FK Buxoro

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	24	17	4	3	56	21	55
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	24	15	8	1	43	22	53
3	Navbahor Namangan	24	13	7	4	42	24	46
4	FK Buxoro	24	12	4	8	37	32	40
5	AGMK	24	11	6	7	34	31	39
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	24	11	6	7	39	30	39
7	Nasaf Qarshi	24	10	8	6	35	22	38
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	24	10	3	11	24	30	33
9	FK Andijan	24	9	3	12	29	32	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	35	38	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	24	8	5	11	41	47	29
12	Termez Surkhon	24	7	7	10	19	28	28
13	FK Kokand 1912	24	5	8	11	24	34	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	24	7	2	15	24	40	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	24	5	8	11	20	34	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	24	1	1	22	11	48	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Buxoro	Termez Surkhon
FC Bunyodkor	1-2 L	1-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	1-4 L	0-1 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-3 L	0-0 D
FK Kokand 1912	1-1 D	1-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	4-1 W	1-2 L
AGMK	2-0 W	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Termez Surkhon (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Buxoro

WDWWDLLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
09/10	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-2	4	3	W
19/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
11/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
05/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	–	–	W

Termez Surkhon

WLLDDWLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
10/10	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
20/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	13	4	W
25/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
21/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
13/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
07/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs Termez Surkhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Buxoro win (48%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 48%, draw 28%, Termez Surkhon 23%.

How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs Termez Surkhon?

The model expects 2.32 goals (FK Buxoro 1.42 · Termez Surkhon 0.9), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs Termez Surkhon?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.