Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: AGMK vs FK Kokand 1912

Team pages: AGMK · FK Kokand 1912

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

AGMK1.79

FK Kokand 19121.03

1X2

54% 25% 21%

AGMK Draw FK Kokand 1912

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWLWDW

FK Kokand 1912 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDLLWL

Head-to-head

AGMK 4–1–1 FK Kokand 1912 (6 last)

FK Kokand 19121-4AGMK
FK Kokand 19122-3AGMK
AGMK0-1FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19121-3AGMK
FK Kokand 19120-0AGMK
AGMK3-0FK Kokand 1912

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1545 · FK Kokand 1912 1452

	AGMK	Draw	FK Kokand 1912
Our model	54%	25%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGMK (rating 1545 vs 1452).
H2H favours AGMK: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	FK Kokand 1912
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 7.1	1.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.97 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +14’	1.65	3.60	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +1’	1.97	3.48	3.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 4–1–1 FK Kokand 1912

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-4 HT 0-0	AGMK
16/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Kokand 1912	2-3 HT 1-1	AGMK
03/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Kokand 1912
10/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-3 HT 1-0	AGMK
09/09/22 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	0-0 HT 0-0	AGMK
27/04/22 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Kokand 1912

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	25	18	4	3	59	22	58
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	25	15	8	2	44	25	53
3	Navbahor Namangan	24	13	7	4	42	24	46
4	FK Buxoro	25	12	5	8	37	32	41
5	AGMK	24	11	6	7	34	31	39
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	24	11	6	7	39	30	39
7	Nasaf Qarshi	24	10	8	6	35	22	38
8	Qizilqum Zarafshon	24	10	3	11	24	30	33
9	FK Andijan	24	9	3	12	29	32	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	35	38	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	24	8	5	11	41	47	29
12	Termez Surkhon	25	7	8	10	19	28	29
13	FC Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	26	41	26
14	FK Kokand 1912	24	5	8	11	24	34	23
15	Xorazm Urganch	24	5	8	11	20	34	23
16	Mashal Mubarek	25	1	1	23	12	50	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	FK Kokand 1912
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	3-0 W
Termez Surkhon	0-0 D	0-1 L
Dinamo Samarqand	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Bunyodkor	3-2 W	1-0 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kokand 1912 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AGMK

LWLLDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
09/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
03/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
25/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
19/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
08/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-2	7	1	W
03/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	9	1	L

FK Kokand 1912

LDWWDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-4	4	2	L
09/10	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
20/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
10/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
05/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
24/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
08/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
03/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs FK Kokand 1912?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGMK win (54%). Probabilities: AGMK 54%, draw 25%, FK Kokand 1912 21%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs FK Kokand 1912?

The model expects 2.81 goals (AGMK 1.79 · FK Kokand 1912 1.03), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs FK Kokand 1912?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.