Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 26/10, 14:30
Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Navbahor Namangan
Team pages: Xorazm Urganch · Navbahor Namangan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Xorazm Urganch1.03
Navbahor Namangan1.84
1X2
Xorazm Urganch
Draw
Navbahor Namangan
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Xorazm Urganch
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Navbahor Namangan
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Xorazm Urganch
0–2–3
Navbahor Namangan
(5 last)
- Navbahor Namangan5-1Xorazm Urganch
- Xorazm Urganch1-1Navbahor Namangan
- Xorazm Urganch1-1Navbahor Namangan
- Xorazm Urganch1-3Navbahor Namangan
- Navbahor Namangan1-0Xorazm Urganch
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1441 · Navbahor Namangan 1596
| Xorazm Urganch | Draw | Navbahor Namangan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 22% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1441 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 3-2-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Xorazm Urganch | Navbahor Namangan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.7 | 2.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 3.7 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 0–2–3 Navbahor Namangan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 Uzbekistan PFL | Navbahor Namangan | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Xorazm Urganch |
| 18/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup | Xorazm Urganch | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Navbahor Namangan |
| 03/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Xorazm Urganch | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Navbahor Namangan |
| 02/07/25 Uzbekistan Cup | Xorazm Urganch | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Navbahor Namangan |
| 11/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Navbahor Namangan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Xorazm Urganch |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 59 | 22 | 58 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 44 | 25 | 53 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 46 |
| 4 | AGMK | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 23 | 41 |
| 6 | FK Buxoro | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 32 | 41 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 31 | 40 |
| 8 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 31 | 34 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 30 | 33 | 31 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 11 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 49 | 29 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 29 |
| 13 | FC Bunyodkor | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 41 | 26 |
| 14 | FK Kokand 1912 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 36 | 23 |
| 15 | Xorazm Urganch | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 34 | 23 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 25 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 50 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Xorazm Urganch | Navbahor Namangan |
|---|---|---|
| Termez Surkhon | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| AGMK | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Dinamo Samarqand | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Mashal Mubarek | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xorazm Urganch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 07/10 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 21/09 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/09 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/09 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/08 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/08 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 07/08 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
Navbahor Namangan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 11/10 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 17/09 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
3-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/09 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 26/08 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 21/08 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/08 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 4-3 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Navbahor Namangan?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Navbahor Namangan win (56%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 21%, draw 23%, Navbahor Namangan 56%.
How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Navbahor Namangan?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Xorazm Urganch 1.03 · Navbahor Namangan 1.84), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Navbahor Namangan?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.