Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 16/07, 17:00
Prediction: Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Xorazm Urganch
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Sogdiana Jizzakh1.78
Xorazm Urganch1.03
1X2
Sogdiana Jizzakh
Draw
Xorazm Urganch
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sogdiana Jizzakh
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Xorazm Urganch
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sogdiana Jizzakh
2–0
Xorazm Urganch
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1511 · Xorazm Urganch 1480
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | Draw | Xorazm Urganch | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sogdiana Jizzakh: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sogdiana Jizzakh | Xorazm Urganch | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 1.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogdiana Jizzakh 2–0–0 Xorazm Urganch
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Xorazm Urganch | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sogdiana Jizzakh |
| 19/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Xorazm Urganch |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | AGMK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | FK Andijan | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | FK Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sogdiana Jizzakh | Xorazm Urganch |
|---|---|---|
| Mashal Mubarek | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Navbahor Namangan | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| FC Bunyodkor | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Dinamo Samarqand | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Kokand 1912 | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sogdiana Jizzakh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 08/04 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 20/03 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/03 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
Xorazm Urganch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 12/05 | Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 14/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 03/04 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/03 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Xorazm Urganch?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sogdiana Jizzakh win (54%). Probabilities: Sogdiana Jizzakh 54%, draw 26%, Xorazm Urganch 21%.
How many goals are expected in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Xorazm Urganch?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Sogdiana Jizzakh 1.78 · Xorazm Urganch 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Xorazm Urganch?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.