Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 26/07, 17:00

Prediction: FC Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

FC Bunyodkor1.04

Pakhtakor Tashkent1.94

1X2

19% 24% 57%

FC Bunyodkor Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Bunyodkor 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Pakhtakor Tashkent 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Bunyodkor 2–2–2 Pakhtakor Tashkent (6 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent4-2FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor2-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
FC Bunyodkor0-0Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent1-0FC Bunyodkor
Pakhtakor Tashkent2-3FC Bunyodkor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Bunyodkor 1490 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1554

	FC Bunyodkor	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	19%	24%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1490 vs 1554).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Bunyodkor	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	2.9 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.70

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.14
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	1.67 → 1.57▼	Pinn 1.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +12’	4.20	3.60	1.67
16:39 +3’	4.50▲	3.70▲	1.60▼
04:54 +13’	4.75▲	3.70	1.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +2’	5.08	4.01	1.58
18:12	4.95▼	3.97▼	1.60▲
21:25	5.02▲	4.00▲	1.59▼
16:04	5.14▲	4.07▲	1.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Bunyodkor 2–2–2 Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	4-2 HT 3-0	FC Bunyodkor
14/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-1 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
30/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-0 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
15/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	0-0 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
27/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Bunyodkor
01/12/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	13	9	3	1	25	14	30
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	AGMK	13	6	4	3	21	17	22
5	Navbahor Namangan	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
6	FC Bunyodkor	13	6	1	6	14	15	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	13	5	4	4	18	18	19
8	Nasaf Qarshi	13	4	6	3	16	13	18
9	FK Andijan	13	5	2	6	20	16	17
10	Dinamo Samarqand	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
11	Termez Surkhon	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	13	4	2	7	10	18	14
13	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	13	2	5	6	11	20	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	13	1	1	11	6	22	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Bunyodkor	Pakhtakor Tashkent
FK Buxoro	0-1 L	1-0 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-3 L	2-2 D
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
24/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
11/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	0	8	W
24/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
19/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	3	1	W
14/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
07/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Pakhtakor Tashkent

WWWDDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-0	8	0	W
18/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	0-2	12	5	L
13/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	4-1	1	2	W
03/05	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
28/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
22/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
18/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	4-2	6	4	W
13/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pakhtakor Tashkent win (57%). Probabilities: FC Bunyodkor 19%, draw 24%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 57%.

How many goals are expected in FC Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model expects 2.98 goals (FC Bunyodkor 1.04 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1.94), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.