Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 22/07, 17:00
Prediction: Mashal Mubarek vs Nasaf Qarshi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.42Total
Mashal Mubarek0.82
Nasaf Qarshi1.6
1X2
Mashal Mubarek
Draw
Nasaf Qarshi
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mashal Mubarek
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Nasaf Qarshi
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mashal Mubarek
1–1–4
Nasaf Qarshi
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mashal Mubarek 1421 · Nasaf Qarshi 1525
| Mashal Mubarek | Draw | Nasaf Qarshi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 27% | 55% |
| Market | 19% | 26% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nasaf Qarshi (rating 1421 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mashal Mubarek | Nasaf Qarshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.1 | 2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.4 | 2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mashal Mubarek 1–1–4 Nasaf Qarshi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 20/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Mashal Mubarek | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Nasaf Qarshi |
| 02/10/21 Uzbekistan PFL | Mashal Mubarek | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nasaf Qarshi |
| 09/07/21 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 02/10/20 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Mashal Mubarek |
| 21/06/20 Uzbekistan PFL | Mashal Mubarek | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nasaf Qarshi |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 4 | 31 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Bunyodkor | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 19 |
| 6 | AGMK | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 18 |
| 8 | Nasaf Qarshi | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 16 |
| 10 | Termez Surkhon | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 15 |
| 11 | Dinamo Samarqand | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 22 | 14 |
| 12 | Xorazm Urganch | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 13 |
| 13 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 13 |
| 14 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | 12 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 11 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mashal Mubarek | Nasaf Qarshi |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kokand 1912 | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Buxoro | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Bunyodkor | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Navbahor Namangan | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mashal Mubarek
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
1-3 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Nasaf Qarshi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Havoqand Uzbekistan Cup |
5-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 28/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 08/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mashal Mubarek vs Nasaf Qarshi?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nasaf Qarshi win (55%). Probabilities: Mashal Mubarek 18%, draw 27%, Nasaf Qarshi 55%.
How many goals are expected in Mashal Mubarek vs Nasaf Qarshi?
The model expects 2.42 goals (Mashal Mubarek 0.82 · Nasaf Qarshi 1.6), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mashal Mubarek vs Nasaf Qarshi?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.