Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 23/07, 17:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Navbahor Namangan1.66

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.51

1X2

65% 24% 11%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Qizilqum Zarafshon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLDDL

Qizilqum Zarafshon 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWDLL

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 4–1–1 Qizilqum Zarafshon (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1523 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1448

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Our model	65%	25%	10%
Market	66%	23%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Navbahor Namangan (rating 1523 vs 1448).
H2H favours Navbahor Namangan: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X3.90

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.36▼	Pinn 1.38
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.26 ★
2	6.50 → 8.00▲	Pinn 8.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:01 +3’	1.44	3.75	6.50
06:02 +2’	1.36▼	3.90▲	8.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:03	1.38	4.26	8.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 4–1–1 Qizilqum Zarafshon

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
04/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	3-2 HT 1-2	Navbahor Namangan
22/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-5 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
20/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
30/07/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-2 HT 1-1	Navbahor Namangan
04/03/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	3-0 HT 1-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	13	9	3	1	25	14	30
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	Navbahor Namangan	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	13	6	1	6	14	15	19
6	AGMK	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
8	Nasaf Qarshi	12	4	5	3	15	12	17
9	FK Andijan	12	5	1	6	17	13	16
10	Termez Surkhon	12	4	3	5	13	19	15
11	Dinamo Samarqand	12	4	2	6	19	22	14
12	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	12	4	1	7	9	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	12	2	5	5	10	16	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	12	1	0	11	5	21	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Qizilqum Zarafshon
AGMK	2-3 L	0-1 L
Xorazm Urganch	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-1 D	1-3 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-0 W	0-1 L
Termez Surkhon	2-0 W	1-0 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Kokand 1912	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Navbahor Namangan (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Navbahor Namangan

LWWWWDLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
07/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/03	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	5	L

Qizilqum Zarafshon

WLLLLWWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
17/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
09/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
04/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
18/03	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
10/03	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (65%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 65%, draw 24%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 11%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.66 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.51), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.