Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 23/07, 17:00

Prediction: Termez Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Termez Surkhon1.32

Dinamo Samarqand1.61

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Termez Surkhon Draw Dinamo Samarqand

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Termez Surkhon 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLDWWW

Dinamo Samarqand 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWLDW

Head-to-head

Termez Surkhon 0–1–5 Dinamo Samarqand (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termez Surkhon 1520 · Dinamo Samarqand 1488

	Termez Surkhon	Draw	Dinamo Samarqand
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	30%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dinamo Samarqand: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termez Surkhon	Dinamo Samarqand
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.46 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:55 +10’	3.00	3.25	2.10
06:03 +1’	2.60▼	3.20▼	2.38▲
07:02 +4’	3.00▲	3.25▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:03 +1’	2.94	3.02	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Termez Surkhon 0–1–5 Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Samarqand
09/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-0 HT 1-0	Termez Surkhon
29/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Termez Surkhon	0-1 HT 0-1	Dinamo Samarqand
26/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	3-0 HT 0-0	Termez Surkhon
13/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-1 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
07/11/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	1-4 HT 0-3	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	13	9	3	1	25	14	30
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	Navbahor Namangan	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	13	6	1	6	14	15	19
6	AGMK	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
8	Nasaf Qarshi	12	4	5	3	15	12	17
9	FK Andijan	12	5	1	6	17	13	16
10	Termez Surkhon	12	4	3	5	13	19	15
11	Dinamo Samarqand	12	4	2	6	19	22	14
12	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	12	4	1	7	9	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	12	2	5	5	10	16	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	12	1	0	11	5	21	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Termez Surkhon	Dinamo Samarqand
FK Andijan	2-1 W	1-2 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-0 W	2-4 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-5 L	2-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	3-1 W
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 L	2-1 W
AGMK	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Samarqand (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Termez Surkhon

WDLLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
27/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
18/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
28/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-5	6	3	L
22/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
17/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
12/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
08/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
04/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	4	6	W

Dinamo Samarqand

LWLLDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
15/05	Lokomotiv Bfk Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
10/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
02/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
28/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
18/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-4	2	4	L
12/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	8	L
08/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
03/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termez Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dinamo Samarqand win (43%). Probabilities: Termez Surkhon 30%, draw 27%, Dinamo Samarqand 43%.

How many goals are expected in Termez Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Termez Surkhon 1.32 · Dinamo Samarqand 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Termez Surkhon vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.