Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 22/07, 17:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FK Andijan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.21

FK Andijan1.11

1X2

37% 30% 32%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw FK Andijan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLWWD

FK Andijan 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 4–1–1 FK Andijan (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1510 · FK Andijan 1513

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Draw	FK Andijan
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lokomotiv Tashkent: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	FK Andijan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.65 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.70 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.87

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +1’	2.45	3.00	2.70
15:25 +39’	2.40▼	3.00	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:05	2.65	2.84	2.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 4–1–1 FK Andijan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-2 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
04/04/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
17/10/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
17/05/21 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-2 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
20/04/21 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Andijan	1-2 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
10/09/20 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	0-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	12	10	1	1	27	4	31
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
3	FK Buxoro	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	12	6	1	5	14	14	19
6	AGMK	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
8	Nasaf Qarshi	12	4	5	3	15	12	17
9	FK Andijan	12	5	1	6	17	13	16
10	Termez Surkhon	12	4	3	5	13	19	15
11	Dinamo Samarqand	12	4	2	6	19	22	14
12	Xorazm Urganch	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	12	4	1	7	9	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	12	3	3	6	21	25	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	12	2	5	5	10	16	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	12	1	0	11	5	21	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	FK Andijan
AGMK	1-2 L	1-2 L
Nasaf Qarshi	3-2 W	1-1 D
Navbahor Namangan	0-2 L	0-1 L
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	2-1 W
Xorazm Urganch	1-1 D	3-0 W
FC Bunyodkor	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Andijan (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Tashkent

LLDWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
20/05	Gazalkent Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	5-1	7	7	W
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
27/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
23/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
17/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
12/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	8	W
07/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
02/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
20/03	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	5	4	L

FK Andijan

LLLDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
21/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
15/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-1	8	0	W
04/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
24/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-1	2	1	W
19/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
12/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
07/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
03/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FK Andijan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (37%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 37%, draw 30%, FK Andijan 32%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FK Andijan?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.21 · FK Andijan 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs FK Andijan?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.