Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 21/07, 17:00

Prediction: Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Sogdiana Jizzakh1

Neftchi Fergana2.04

1X2

17% 23% 60%

Sogdiana Jizzakh Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sogdiana Jizzakh 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWLWW

Neftchi Fergana 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWWLW

Head-to-head

Sogdiana Jizzakh 1–2–3 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1502 · Neftchi Fergana 1577

	Sogdiana Jizzakh	Draw	Neftchi Fergana
Our model	17%	23%	60%
Market	16%	24%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1502 vs 1577).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sogdiana Jizzakh	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	3.4 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.80

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.25 → 5.50▲	Pinn 6.11 ★
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Pinn 4.01
2	1.67 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +4’	4.25	3.60	1.67
14:59 +3’	5.25▲	3.80▲	1.50▼
04:51 +10’	5.50▲	3.80	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:01	6.02	3.97	1.51
18:02	6.04▲	3.98▲	1.51▼
05:01	6.11▲	4.01▲	1.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sogdiana Jizzakh 1–2–3 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-1 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
04/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-1 HT 2-1	Sogdiana Jizzakh
20/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	0-3 HT 0-1	Sogdiana Jizzakh
06/07/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
02/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-2 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
11/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	0-0 HT 0-0	Sogdiana Jizzakh

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	12	10	1	1	27	4	31
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
3	FK Buxoro	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	12	6	1	5	14	14	19
6	AGMK	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
8	Nasaf Qarshi	12	4	5	3	15	12	17
9	FK Andijan	12	5	1	6	17	13	16
10	Termez Surkhon	12	4	3	5	13	19	15
11	Dinamo Samarqand	12	4	2	6	19	22	14
12	Xorazm Urganch	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	12	4	1	7	9	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	12	3	3	6	21	25	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	12	2	5	5	10	16	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	12	1	0	11	5	21	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sogdiana Jizzakh	Neftchi Fergana
Xorazm Urganch	2-0 W	2-0 W
FK Buxoro	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Bunyodkor	2-3 L	1-0 W
FK Kokand 1912	2-2 D	4-0 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sogdiana Jizzakh

LDLWLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
14/05	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
02/05	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
28/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-2	6	3	W
23/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	6	1	L
13/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
08/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
02/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	3	7	D
20/03	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-4	1	3	L

Neftchi Fergana

LWWWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup	4-0	6-2	10	0	W
11/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
29/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
24/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
18/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	10	1	W
14/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Fergana win (60%). Probabilities: Sogdiana Jizzakh 17%, draw 23%, Neftchi Fergana 60%.

How many goals are expected in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Sogdiana Jizzakh 1 · Neftchi Fergana 2.04), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sogdiana Jizzakh vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.