Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 28/07, 17:00

Prediction: Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Xorazm Urganch1.39

Termez Surkhon1

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Xorazm Urganch Draw Termez Surkhon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Xorazm Urganch 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLWDLL

Termez Surkhon 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Xorazm Urganch 1–1–4 Termez Surkhon (6 last)

Xorazm Urganch2-2Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon0-2Xorazm Urganch
Termez Surkhon3-1Xorazm Urganch
Termez Surkhon6-1Xorazm Urganch
Xorazm Urganch0-4Termez Surkhon
Termez Surkhon2-0Xorazm Urganch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xorazm Urganch 1471 · Termez Surkhon 1515

	Xorazm Urganch	Draw	Termez Surkhon
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termez Surkhon (rating 1471 vs 1515).
H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xorazm Urganch	Termez Surkhon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.14 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +2’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:03	2.14	3.09	3.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Xorazm Urganch 1–1–4 Termez Surkhon

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Xorazm Urganch	2-2 HT 1-1	Termez Surkhon
16/03/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Termez Surkhon	0-2 HT 0-2	Xorazm Urganch
06/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Termez Surkhon	3-1 HT 2-1	Xorazm Urganch
05/10/18 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Termez Surkhon	6-1 HT 3-0	Xorazm Urganch
30/09/18 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Xorazm Urganch	0-4 HT 0-1	Termez Surkhon
18/05/18 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Termez Surkhon	2-0	Xorazm Urganch

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	14	10	3	1	26	14	33
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	AGMK	13	6	4	3	21	17	22
5	Navbahor Namangan	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
6	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	13	5	4	4	18	18	19
8	Nasaf Qarshi	13	4	6	3	16	13	18
9	FK Andijan	13	5	2	6	20	16	17
10	Dinamo Samarqand	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
11	Termez Surkhon	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	13	4	2	7	10	18	14
13	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	13	2	5	6	11	20	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	13	1	1	11	6	22	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xorazm Urganch	Termez Surkhon
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-2 L	2-0 W
Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-2 L	2-5 L
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	0-2 L
FK Andijan	0-3 L	2-1 W
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-0 D	0-1 L
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Xorazm Urganch (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Xorazm Urganch

DDWLDLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
18/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
29/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
18/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
14/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
07/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	1	D

Termez Surkhon

DLLWLDWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
18/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
27/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
18/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
03/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
28/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-5	6	3	L
22/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	9	5	W
17/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
12/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
08/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Xorazm Urganch win (45%). Probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 45%, draw 29%, Termez Surkhon 26%.

How many goals are expected in Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Xorazm Urganch 1.39 · Termez Surkhon 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.