Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 28/07, 17:00
Prediction: Nasaf Qarshi vs Qizilqum Zarafshon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Nasaf Qarshi1.55
Qizilqum Zarafshon0.76
1X2
Nasaf Qarshi
Draw
Qizilqum Zarafshon
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Nasaf Qarshi
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Qizilqum Zarafshon
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nasaf Qarshi
4–2–0
Qizilqum Zarafshon
(6 last)
- Qizilqum Zarafshon0-1Nasaf Qarshi
- Nasaf Qarshi4-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Qizilqum Zarafshon0-1Nasaf Qarshi
- Nasaf Qarshi2-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Nasaf Qarshi0-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Qizilqum Zarafshon1-1Nasaf Qarshi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nasaf Qarshi 1535 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1437
| Nasaf Qarshi | Draw | Qizilqum Zarafshon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nasaf Qarshi (rating 1535 vs 1437).
- H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nasaf Qarshi | Qizilqum Zarafshon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.5 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasaf Qarshi 4–2–0 Qizilqum Zarafshon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nasaf Qarshi |
| 27/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
| 16/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Nasaf Qarshi |
| 16/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
| 19/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
| 01/04/23 Uzbekistan PFL | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nasaf Qarshi |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 5 | 34 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | AGMK | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Navbahor Namangan | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
| 6 | FC Bunyodkor | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| 8 | Nasaf Qarshi | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 18 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 17 |
| 10 | Dinamo Samarqand | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Termez Surkhon | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | 15 |
| 12 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 14 |
| 13 | Xorazm Urganch | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 13 |
| 14 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 30 | 12 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 11 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 22 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nasaf Qarshi | Qizilqum Zarafshon |
|---|---|---|
| Navbahor Namangan | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Neftchi Fergana | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| FK Buxoro | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nasaf Qarshi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 16/07 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Havoqand Uzbekistan Cup |
5-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 28/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
Qizilqum Zarafshon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 04/05 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/04 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/04 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/03 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nasaf Qarshi vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nasaf Qarshi win (55%). Probabilities: Nasaf Qarshi 55%, draw 27%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 18%.
How many goals are expected in Nasaf Qarshi vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Nasaf Qarshi 1.55 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 0.76), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nasaf Qarshi vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.