Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 27/07, 17:00

Prediction: AGMK vs Mashal Mubarek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

AGMK2.15

Mashal Mubarek0.75

1X2

69% 20% 11%

AGMK Draw Mashal Mubarek

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDWWWW

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWD

Head-to-head

AGMK 4–2 Mashal Mubarek (6 last)

AGMK2-0Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-1AGMK
AGMK0-1Mashal Mubarek
AGMK3-2Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek2-1AGMK
Mashal Mubarek0-2AGMK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1594 · Mashal Mubarek 1414

	AGMK	Draw	Mashal Mubarek
Our model	69%	20%	11%
Market	69%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGMK (rating 1594 vs 1414).
H2H favours AGMK: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	Mashal Mubarek
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.3	1.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.39 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.51
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +7’	1.30	4.50	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:19	1.39	4.51	7.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 4–0–2 Mashal Mubarek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	2-0 HT 1-0	Mashal Mubarek
05/07/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-1 HT 0-1	AGMK
15/04/24 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	0-1 HT 0-0	Mashal Mubarek
15/10/21 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-2 HT 2-1	Mashal Mubarek
19/05/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	2-1 HT 2-0	AGMK
17/10/20 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-2 HT 0-1	AGMK

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	13	9	3	1	25	14	30
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	AGMK	13	6	4	3	21	17	22
5	Navbahor Namangan	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
6	FC Bunyodkor	13	6	1	6	14	15	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	13	5	4	4	18	18	19
8	Nasaf Qarshi	13	4	6	3	16	13	18
9	FK Andijan	13	5	2	6	20	16	17
10	Dinamo Samarqand	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
11	Termez Surkhon	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	13	4	2	7	10	18	14
13	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	13	2	5	6	11	20	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	13	1	1	11	6	22	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	Mashal Mubarek
FK Kokand 1912	4-1 W	1-0 W
Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 D	1-3 L
FK Buxoro	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AGMK (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AGMK

WWDWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
17/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
20/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	3-3	7	5	D
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
27/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
23/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
17/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	3-2	11	6	W
12/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	–	–	W

Mashal Mubarek

LLLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
09/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L
27/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
22/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
13/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
07/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs Mashal Mubarek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGMK win (69%). Probabilities: AGMK 69%, draw 20%, Mashal Mubarek 11%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model expects 2.9 goals (AGMK 2.15 · Mashal Mubarek 0.75), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.