Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 28/07, 17:00

Prediction: Neftchi Fergana vs Navbahor Namangan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Neftchi Fergana1.68

Navbahor Namangan0.82

1X2

57% 25% 17%

Neftchi Fergana Draw Navbahor Namangan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Neftchi Fergana 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Navbahor Namangan 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Neftchi Fergana 2–3–1 Navbahor Namangan (6 last)

Navbahor Namangan0-1Neftchi Fergana
Navbahor Namangan1-1Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana3-2Navbahor Namangan
Neftchi Fergana2-2Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan1-0Neftchi Fergana
Navbahor Namangan1-1Neftchi Fergana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neftchi Fergana 1616 · Navbahor Namangan 1510

	Neftchi Fergana	Draw	Navbahor Namangan
Our model	57%	26%	17%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Fergana (rating 1616 vs 1510).
H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 2-3-1.
High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neftchi Fergana	Navbahor Namangan
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.8	2.7 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.60▲	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 16%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +4’	1.50	3.70	5.50
14:02 +2’	1.55▲	3.60▼	5.00▼
16:04	1.60▲	3.60	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:03	1.77	3.58	4.23
15:04	1.75▼	3.34▼	3.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Fergana 2–3–1 Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-1 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
15/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Navbahor Namangan	1-1 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
05/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	3-2 HT 0-1	Navbahor Namangan
20/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	2-2 HT 1-0	Navbahor Namangan
19/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Fergana
01/12/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	1-1 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	13	11	1	1	32	5	34
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	14	10	3	1	26	14	33
3	FK Buxoro	13	7	2	4	17	13	23
4	AGMK	13	6	4	3	21	17	22
5	Navbahor Namangan	13	6	3	4	17	12	21
6	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	13	5	4	4	18	18	19
8	Nasaf Qarshi	13	4	6	3	16	13	18
9	FK Andijan	13	5	2	6	20	16	17
10	Dinamo Samarqand	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
11	Termez Surkhon	13	4	3	6	14	21	15
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	13	4	2	7	10	18	14
13	Xorazm Urganch	13	3	4	6	10	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	13	3	3	7	22	30	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	13	2	5	6	11	20	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	13	1	1	11	6	22	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neftchi Fergana	Navbahor Namangan
Sogdiana Jizzakh	5-1 W	1-1 D
AGMK	0-0 D	2-3 L
Xorazm Urganch	2-0 W	1-1 D
Nasaf Qarshi	2-1 W	0-0 D
FC Bunyodkor	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Fergana (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
08/07	Zenit St Petersburg Club Friendly List	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
26/05	BuxDu Uzbekistan Cup	4-0	6-2	10	0	W
11/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	6-1	5	4	W
03/05	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
29/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
24/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
18/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	10	1	W
14/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	9	1	W

Navbahor Namangan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
12/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
07/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftchi Fergana vs Navbahor Namangan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Fergana win (57%). Probabilities: Neftchi Fergana 57%, draw 25%, Navbahor Namangan 17%.

How many goals are expected in Neftchi Fergana vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Neftchi Fergana 1.68 · Navbahor Namangan 0.82), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Fergana vs Navbahor Namangan?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.