Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 21/07, 17:00

Prediction: FK Buxoro vs FC Bunyodkor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

FK Buxoro1.6

FC Bunyodkor1.14

1X2

46% 28% 26%

FK Buxoro Draw FC Bunyodkor

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Buxoro 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Bunyodkor 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Buxoro 2–4 FC Bunyodkor (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Buxoro 1495 · FC Bunyodkor 1504

	FK Buxoro	Draw	FC Bunyodkor
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Bunyodkor: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Buxoro	FC Bunyodkor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.99
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.28
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.68 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +2’	1.95	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +1’	1.93	3.37	3.82
15:01	1.98▲	3.32▼	3.68▼
23:00	1.99▲	3.28▼	3.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 2–0–4 FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/25 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	2-4 HT 1-2	FK Buxoro
17/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
08/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
04/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
27/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Buxoro
07/04/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	12	10	1	1	27	4	31
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
3	FK Buxoro	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
4	Navbahor Namangan	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	FC Bunyodkor	12	6	1	5	14	14	19
6	AGMK	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Lokomotiv Tashkent	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
8	Nasaf Qarshi	12	4	5	3	15	12	17
9	FK Andijan	12	5	1	6	17	13	16
10	Termez Surkhon	12	4	3	5	13	19	15
11	Dinamo Samarqand	12	4	2	6	19	22	14
12	Xorazm Urganch	12	3	4	5	9	15	13
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	12	4	1	7	9	17	13
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	12	3	3	6	21	25	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	12	2	5	5	10	16	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	12	1	0	11	5	21	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Buxoro	FC Bunyodkor
Neftchi Fergana	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	2-1 W	3-2 W
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Buxoro (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Buxoro

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/05	Guliston Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
02/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
17/04	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	2-3	8	6	L
13/04	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
09/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
04/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	6	6	L
19/03	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-1	0	5	W

FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
24/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
11/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	0	8	W
24/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
19/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	3	1	W
14/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
07/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
02/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs FC Bunyodkor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Buxoro win (46%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 46%, draw 28%, FC Bunyodkor 26%.

How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model expects 2.74 goals (FK Buxoro 1.6 · FC Bunyodkor 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.