Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 02/08, 17:30

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FC Bunyodkor

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · FC Bunyodkor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.21

FC Bunyodkor1.02

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw FC Bunyodkor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDLLDL

FC Bunyodkor 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 3–3–0 FC Bunyodkor (6 last)

Qizilqum Zarafshon1-1FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor0-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-0FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor1-3Qizilqum Zarafshon
FC Bunyodkor2-2Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon2-0FC Bunyodkor

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Qizilqum Zarafshon: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	FC Bunyodkor
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.81

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:02

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.67 → 2.51▼	Pinn 2.51
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.00
2	2.71 → 2.89▲	Pinn 2.89

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:02	2.67	3.00	2.71
21:02	2.51▼	3.00	2.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 3–3–0 FC Bunyodkor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Bunyodkor
12/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	0-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
02/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Bunyodkor
02/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-3 HT 0-3	Qizilqum Zarafshon
06/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-2 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
30/06/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Bunyodkor

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	14	11	2	1	33	6	35
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	14	7	4	3	23	18	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	14	6	4	4	18	13	22
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
7	Nasaf Qarshi	14	5	6	3	17	13	21
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	14	6	2	6	24	25	20
10	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	14	4	4	6	11	17	16
12	Termez Surkhon	14	4	3	7	14	22	15
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	14	4	2	8	10	19	14
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	14	3	3	8	23	33	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	14	2	5	7	13	23	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	14	1	1	12	7	24	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	FC Bunyodkor
Nasaf Qarshi	0-1 L	1-3 L
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kokand 1912	2-1 W	0-1 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-3 L	3-2 W
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	0-1 L
Neftchi Fergana	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Bunyodkor (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Qizilqum Zarafshon

LLLWWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
17/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
09/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
04/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	2	L

FC Bunyodkor

LWLWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
24/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan Cup	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
11/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
29/04	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	0	8	W
24/04	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	7	1	L
19/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	3	1	W
14/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FC Bunyodkor?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Qizilqum Zarafshon win (39%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 39%, draw 31%, FC Bunyodkor 30%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.21 · FC Bunyodkor 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FC Bunyodkor?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.