Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 14/08, 17:30

Prediction: Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Mashal Mubarek

Team pages: Qizilqum Zarafshon · Mashal Mubarek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.43

Mashal Mubarek0.75

1X2

53% 28% 19%

Qizilqum Zarafshon Draw Mashal Mubarek

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Qizilqum Zarafshon 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLDLL

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Qizilqum Zarafshon 4–1–1 Mashal Mubarek (6 last)

Mashal Mubarek0-2Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-0Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek2-2Qizilqum Zarafshon
Mashal Mubarek2-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon2-0Mashal Mubarek
Qizilqum Zarafshon1-0Mashal Mubarek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1471 · Mashal Mubarek 1401

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Draw	Mashal Mubarek
Our model	52%	29%	18%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qizilqum Zarafshon (rating 1471 vs 1401).
H2H favours Qizilqum Zarafshon: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Mashal Mubarek
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	1.4 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:27 +2’	1.67	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Qizilqum Zarafshon 4–1–1 Mashal Mubarek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-2 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
05/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 HT 0-0	Mashal Mubarek
11/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	2-2 HT 1-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
21/11/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	2-1 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
02/07/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-0 HT 2-0	Mashal Mubarek
22/09/20 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 HT 0-0	Mashal Mubarek

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	16	12	3	1	38	6	39
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	16	10	5	1	28	16	35
3	AGMK	16	8	4	4	27	22	28
4	Navbahor Namangan	16	8	4	4	24	14	28
5	FK Buxoro	16	8	3	5	21	18	27
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	16	7	4	5	24	22	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	16	6	7	3	19	14	25
8	FK Andijan	16	6	3	7	22	17	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	16	6	3	7	25	27	21
10	FC Bunyodkor	16	6	1	9	16	22	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	16	5	4	7	14	22	19
12	Sogdiana Jizzakh	16	5	3	8	27	34	18
13	Termez Surkhon	16	5	3	8	15	23	18
14	Qizilqum Zarafshon	16	5	2	9	13	24	17
15	FK Kokand 1912	16	2	6	8	13	24	12
16	Mashal Mubarek	16	1	1	14	8	29	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qizilqum Zarafshon	Mashal Mubarek
Nasaf Qarshi	0-1 L	1-1 D
Dinamo Samarqand	1-2 L	1-3 L
Xorazm Urganch	0-0 D	0-2 L
FK Kokand 1912	2-1 W	1-0 W
Termez Surkhon	1-0 W	1-2 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	1-3 L	1-3 L
FK Buxoro	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Qizilqum Zarafshon (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Qizilqum Zarafshon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
04/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/04	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
24/04	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
17/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
13/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
09/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L

Mashal Mubarek

LLLLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
02/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
27/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
09/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L
27/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
22/04	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Mashal Mubarek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Qizilqum Zarafshon win (53%). Probabilities: Qizilqum Zarafshon 53%, draw 28%, Mashal Mubarek 19%.

How many goals are expected in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.43 · Mashal Mubarek 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.