Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 21/08, 16:00

Prediction: Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi

Team pages: Navbahor Namangan · Nasaf Qarshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Navbahor Namangan1.57

Nasaf Qarshi0.87

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Navbahor Namangan Draw Nasaf Qarshi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Navbahor Namangan 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDDWWW

Nasaf Qarshi 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Navbahor Namangan 0–2–4 Nasaf Qarshi (6 last)

Nasaf Qarshi0-0Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan0-0Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi1-0Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan0-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi3-2Navbahor Namangan
Navbahor Namangan0-1Nasaf Qarshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Navbahor Namangan 1513 · Nasaf Qarshi 1539

	Navbahor Namangan	Draw	Nasaf Qarshi
Our model	53%	28%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Navbahor Namangan	Nasaf Qarshi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.8	3.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.60

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.65▼	Pinn 1.71
X	3.40 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	4.00 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.79 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:06 +5’	1.73	3.40	4.00
12:19 +4’	1.65▼	3.60▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +3’	1.72	3.46	4.77
15:03 +1’	1.71▼	3.49▲	4.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Navbahor Namangan 0–2–4 Nasaf Qarshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
30/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-0 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
15/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	1-0 HT 0-0	Navbahor Namangan
14/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
30/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	3-2 HT 2-2	Navbahor Namangan
30/10/23 Uzbekistan PFL	Navbahor Namangan	0-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	18	13	3	2	42	10	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	17	11	5	1	30	17	38
3	FK Buxoro	18	10	3	5	27	19	33
4	Navbahor Namangan	17	9	4	4	28	17	31
5	AGMK	18	8	4	6	27	25	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	17	7	4	6	25	24	25
7	Nasaf Qarshi	17	6	7	4	20	16	25
8	Dinamo Samarqand	18	7	4	7	28	29	25
9	FK Andijan	18	7	3	8	23	20	24
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	18	7	3	8	32	36	24
11	Xorazm Urganch	17	5	5	7	16	24	20
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	18	6	2	10	16	26	20
13	FC Bunyodkor	17	6	1	10	19	26	19
14	Termez Surkhon	17	5	3	9	16	26	18
15	FK Kokand 1912	17	3	6	8	15	25	15
16	Mashal Mubarek	18	1	1	16	8	32	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Navbahor Namangan	Nasaf Qarshi
FC Bunyodkor	4-3 W	3-1 W
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-1 D	1-0 W
AGMK	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nasaf Qarshi (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Navbahor Namangan

DLDDLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	4-3	7	4	W
07/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
02/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
28/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
23/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
18/05	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
04/05	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
29/04	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
23/04	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	9	3	D

Nasaf Qarshi

DWDWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
08/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
26/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
21/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/05	Havoqand Uzbekistan Cup	5-0	6-1	6	1	W
04/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Navbahor Namangan win (53%). Probabilities: Navbahor Namangan 53%, draw 26%, Nasaf Qarshi 21%.

How many goals are expected in Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Navbahor Namangan 1.57 · Nasaf Qarshi 0.87), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Navbahor Namangan vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.