Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 24/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Kokand 1912 vs FK Buxoro

Team pages: FK Kokand 1912 · FK Buxoro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

FK Kokand 19121.16

FK Buxoro1.12

1X2

36% 30% 34%

FK Kokand 1912 Draw FK Buxoro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kokand 1912 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLDWW

FK Buxoro 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWDWW

Head-to-head

FK Kokand 1912 2–2–2 FK Buxoro (6 last)

FK Buxoro1-0FK Kokand 1912
FK Buxoro1-0FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19121-0FK Buxoro
FK Kokand 19120-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro2-2FK Kokand 1912
FK Kokand 19123-0FK Buxoro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kokand 1912 1450 · FK Buxoro 1535

	FK Kokand 1912	Draw	FK Buxoro
Our model	35%	31%	33%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Buxoro (rating 1450 vs 1535).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kokand 1912	FK Buxoro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4.1	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +5’	2.45	3.10	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +3’	2.50	2.99	2.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kokand 1912 2–2–2 FK Buxoro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Kokand 1912
21/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Kokand 1912
12/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Buxoro
26/01/21 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Kokand 1912	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
11/09/20 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	2-2 HT 0-0	FK Kokand 1912
28/02/20 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Kokand 1912	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Buxoro

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	18	13	3	2	42	10	42
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	18	11	6	1	30	17	39
3	Navbahor Namangan	18	10	4	4	29	17	34
4	FK Buxoro	18	10	3	5	27	19	33
5	AGMK	18	8	4	6	27	25	28
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	18	8	4	6	28	25	28
7	Nasaf Qarshi	18	6	7	5	20	17	25
8	Dinamo Samarqand	18	7	4	7	28	29	25
9	FK Andijan	18	7	3	8	23	20	24
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	18	7	3	8	32	36	24
11	Xorazm Urganch	18	5	5	8	17	27	20
12	Qizilqum Zarafshon	18	6	2	10	16	26	20
13	FC Bunyodkor	18	6	1	11	19	27	19
14	Termez Surkhon	18	5	4	9	16	26	19
15	FK Kokand 1912	18	4	6	8	16	25	18
16	Mashal Mubarek	18	1	1	16	8	32	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kokand 1912	FK Buxoro
FC Bunyodkor	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 W	2-1 W
AGMK	1-4 L	2-0 W
Mashal Mubarek	0-1 L	1-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-4 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Buxoro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kokand 1912

LLWLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
08/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
03/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
29/07	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
22/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-4	6	3	L
17/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
03/05	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
29/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-4	1	4	L
24/04	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	7	L

FK Buxoro

LWWLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
02/05	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
22/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kokand 1912 vs FK Buxoro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kokand 1912 win (36%). Probabilities: FK Kokand 1912 36%, draw 30%, FK Buxoro 34%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kokand 1912 vs FK Buxoro?

The model expects 2.29 goals (FK Kokand 1912 1.16 · FK Buxoro 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kokand 1912 vs FK Buxoro?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.