Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 21/08, 17:00
Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Termez Surkhon
Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent · Termez Surkhon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Pakhtakor Tashkent2.13
Termez Surkhon0.58
1X2
Pakhtakor Tashkent
Draw
Termez Surkhon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Pakhtakor Tashkent
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Termez Surkhon
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pakhtakor Tashkent
2–1–3
Termez Surkhon
(6 last)
- Pakhtakor Tashkent0-2Termez Surkhon
- Termez Surkhon1-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Pakhtakor Tashkent1-0Termez Surkhon
- Termez Surkhon2-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Pakhtakor Tashkent0-1Termez Surkhon
- Termez Surkhon0-3Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1563 · Termez Surkhon 1485
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | Draw | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| Market | 75% | 14% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1563 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pakhtakor Tashkent | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.3 | 1.4 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent 2–1–3 Termez Surkhon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Termez Surkhon |
| 03/05/26 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 29/09/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Termez Surkhon |
| 03/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
| 22/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Termez Surkhon |
| 04/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Pakhtakor Tashkent |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 10 | 42 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 38 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 33 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 31 |
| 5 | AGMK | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 28 |
| 7 | Nasaf Qarshi | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 25 |
| 8 | Dinamo Samarqand | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 29 | 25 |
| 9 | FK Andijan | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 10 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 36 | 24 |
| 11 | Xorazm Urganch | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27 | 20 |
| 12 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 26 | 20 |
| 13 | FC Bunyodkor | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 27 | 19 |
| 14 | Termez Surkhon | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 18 |
| 15 | FK Kokand 1912 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 25 | 18 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pakhtakor Tashkent | Termez Surkhon |
|---|---|---|
| FK Andijan | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Xorazm Urganch | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| FC Yaypan Fergana | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pakhtakor Tashkent
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/08 | Al Hussein SC AFC Champions League Qualification |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/08 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/07 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 18/05 | Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
Termez Surkhon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 28/07 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/07 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 28/04 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 2-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Termez Surkhon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent win (74%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent 74%, draw 16%, Termez Surkhon 9%.
How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Termez Surkhon?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent 2.13 · Termez Surkhon 0.58), with a 59% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Termez Surkhon?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.